CS2 · resolved market
Will Natus Vincere win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd0dbfa92a2f08b240503c40f7fd3f8b04ccae2caa9cbbf57c6456074c2c446
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 6,549$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.29 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 4c | 2,794$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…fc88backed Yes | 3c | 2,681$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4409…bc0bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba7…fea3backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…1ad5backed Yes | 4c | 1,532$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Yes | 3c | 1,509$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…91f9backed Yes | 8c | 1,477$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed Yes | 3c | 1,449$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 1c | 1,448$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 4c | 1,407$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd82…6adcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,344$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…966ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,103$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331a…ff18backed Yes | 5c | 1,083$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c56…3adcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,027$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…b8f4backed Yes | 4c | 1,023$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 5c | 957.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…c51dbacked Yes | 4c | 944.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 4c | 797.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 789.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 295 | 47.8%141 W · 154 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 4c | 788.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 5c | 708.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 4c | 677.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 4c | 614.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x455d…89d6backed Yes | 5c | 585.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Yes | 5c | 530.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 4c | 530.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 172 | 36%62 W · 110 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…09afbacked Yes | 6c | 523.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…9d21backed Yes | 4c | 473.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd613…e999backed Yes | 6c | 470.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…8d7dbacked Yes | 4c | 456.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 3c | 431.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf989…47ccbacked Yes | 5c | 346.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Yes | 4c | 346.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…bdc0backed Yes | 6c | 329.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…e3b5backed Yes | 4c | 321.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91eb…4370backed Yes | 5c | 312.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0564…ce95backed Yes | 7c | 305.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1613…4344backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…5578backed Yes | 4c | 273.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…e7e1backed Yes | 10c | 258.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 5c | 222$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f0…2be2backed Yes | 10c | 209$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 7c | 199.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…6abfbacked Yes | 10c | 194.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 12c | 172.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54dd…e72abacked Yes | 9c | 129.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda5a…6509backed Yes | 10c | 128.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…02a1backed Yes | 10c | 100.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natus Vincere win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?this page
- Will 3DMAX win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will Aurora win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will FURIA win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will FaZe win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will Falcons win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will G2 win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will Legacy win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will Liquid win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will Lynn Vision win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will MOUZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will Spirit win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will The MongolZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will Virtus.pro win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
- Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournamentYes won
- Will paiN win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.