Fifa International · resolved market
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e566e2a9b6be99337f0b262a63bbcda63c5c7228560760e7e0ca4403f93fb02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked Yes | 11c | 6,094$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.94 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 50c | 3,441$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked Yes | 14c | 3,422$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.01 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed No | 51c | 2,384$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.37 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,489$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.46 | 406 | 49.8%202 W · 204 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 14c | 1,331$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.83 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 14c | 1,101$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.96 | 287 | 31%89 W · 198 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…ce32backed Yes | 11c | 827.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…eb10backed No | 65c | 771.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33fc…dc88backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 655.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef82…bb0fbacked Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 14c | 539.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 10c | 499.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…3c4cbacked No | 73c | 489.33$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 50c | 480.28$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.69 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…1799backed No | 75c | 453.25$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 74c | 439.65$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 15c | 404.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 372.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 167 | 4.2%7 W · 160 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 29c | 352.47$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…0b8dbacked Yes | 14c | 306.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd33c…a724backed Yes | 15c | 248.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 21c | 239.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 16c | 238.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae9…3e79backed Yes | 14c | 238.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3226…17ddbacked Yes | 38c | 235.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 39c | 235.35$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 219.05$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 218 | 37.2%81 W · 137 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e97…ec4ebacked Yes | 15c | 209$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Yes | 24c | 207.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 204.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.29 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 204$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…2294backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…ee7abacked Yes | 13c | 193$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 191.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…4c05backed Yes | 18c | 169.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 15c | 162.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 41c | 161.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.16 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed Yes | 39c | 158.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca9…fca8backed Yes | 19c | 156.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 10c | 147.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…4bf5backed Yes | 13c | 132$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 82 | 68.3%56 W · 26 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 115.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 74c | 107$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.18 | 171 | 38%65 W · 106 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Yes | 14c | 104$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd990…749ebacked No | 38c | 103.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 13c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 31c | 94.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 15c | 90.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…56f8backed Yes | 19c | 89.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bf…d54ebacked Yes | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0a…caf5backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 802 | 25.7%206 W · 596 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 51c | 61.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…67e6backed No | 31c | 61.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 50c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 423 | 36.9%156 W · 267 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…b7dfbacked Yes | 38c | 52.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 20c | 51.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 43.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 51c | 34.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 669 | 32.1%215 W · 454 L | +16.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea5…9302backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Argentina be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Argentina win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.