TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

League of Legends: Anyone's Legend vs. Bilibili Gaming

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bilibili Gamingof Anyone's Legend, Bilibili Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$309,060
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$332,426

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,060 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Bilibili Gaming30c103,347$30,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,569.728237.8%31 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Bilibili Gaming28c48,032$13,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,809.6621645.4%98 W · 118 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked Anyone's Legend71c37,766$26,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,747.22133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee03…3eeabacked Anyone's Legend69c29,147$20,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,123.696264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.7wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6e9…831abacked Bilibili Gaming9c15,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,6503336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Anyone's Legend70c14,679$10,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,275.484257.1%24 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Bilibili Gaming60c12,010$7,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,845.871145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Anyone's Legend52c11,727$6,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,139.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Bilibili Gaming30c11,295$3,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,919.7328248.9%138 W · 144 L+21.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Anyone's Legend37c10,555$3,869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,869.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0254…34b3backed Anyone's Legend76c10,100$7,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,67610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Anyone's Legend71c8,520$6,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,024.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…1594backed Anyone's Legend72c8,250$5,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,949.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-67.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5d5…54c7backed Bilibili Gaming65c4,672$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Anyone's Legend69c4,323$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005143.1%22 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Bilibili Gaming70c3,571$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.4319448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Anyone's Legend70c3,500$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45030340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Anyone's Legend37c3,328$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.4410348.5%50 W · 53 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Anyone's Legend47c3,154$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.5788242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Anyone's Legend70c3,000$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10021846.8%102 W · 116 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Anyone's Legend73c2,900$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,11624139%94 W · 147 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae0e…6527backed Anyone's Legend70c2,759$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.35837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Anyone's Legend70c2,725$1,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.0642149.6%209 W · 212 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Anyone's Legend66c2,497$1,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6521,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Anyone's Legend71c2,111$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.8417249.4%85 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Bilibili Gaming18c2,060$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,687.432425.3%82 W · 242 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Anyone's Legend69c1,999$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.31,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Anyone's Legend76c1,760$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.88956.2%50 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7055…9717backed Bilibili Gaming29c1,500$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+80.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebce…f37bbacked Anyone's Legend75c1,200$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Anyone's Legend69c1,130$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.78354.2%45 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Bilibili Gaming36c1,113$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Anyone's Legend69c1,000$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69346340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e98…ae0fbacked Anyone's Legend71c1,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Anyone's Legend70c999.99$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70044848.4%217 W · 231 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Bilibili Gaming65c899.24$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7321251.4%109 W · 103 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Anyone's Legend70c771.98$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.01837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa856…3964backed Anyone's Legend70c714.29$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022242.8%95 W · 127 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c3f…676cbacked Anyone's Legend56c656.61$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.110261.8%63 W · 39 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ee4…3485backed Anyone's Legend71c596.2$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.38446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Anyone's Legend70c546.88$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3846451.6%33 W · 31 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Bilibili Gaming36c527.27$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+1,949.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x823c…0425backed Anyone's Legend71c507.48$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Anyone's Legend72c500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Anyone's Legend71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3551435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Bilibili Gaming29c476$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.961,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Anyone's Legend71c422.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016050%80 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Anyone's Legend50c398.46$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019838.8%38 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Bilibili Gaming25c350$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.7212131.4%38 W · 83 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Anyone's Legend71c340.85$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x378f…ea96backed Anyone's Legend65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Bilibili Gaming27c303.49$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.551241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x432d…bda6backed Anyone's Legend71c286.88$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3de…eea7backed Anyone's Legend65c279.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.36253.2%33 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9805…610abacked Anyone's Legend73c276.1$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Bilibili Gaming30c274.48$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.4885946.1%396 W · 463 L-1.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Bilibili Gaming21c238.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.15461.1%33 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd303…9c76backed Anyone's Legend70c217.36$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07be…8bf9backed Anyone's Legend71c210$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.140%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Anyone's Legend66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13228351.9%147 W · 136 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Bilibili Gaming29c199.21$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1424932.7%16 W · 33 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd9…f0d5backed Anyone's Legend70c193.4$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3826563%167 W · 98 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…ae42backed Anyone's Legend70c188.57$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6966…7a8dbacked Anyone's Legend68c168.09$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+44.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Bilibili Gaming32c156.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.414748.9%23 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc356…62cfbacked Bilibili Gaming33c152.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1032…77f1backed Anyone's Legend71c150$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfcf…a26ebacked Bilibili Gaming34c147.06$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.064822.9%11 W · 37 L-9.0wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-49.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf965…afe3backed Anyone's Legend71c141.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Anyone's Legend71c140.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036751%187 W · 180 L-15.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f8…1da1backed Anyone's Legend71c140$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e9…c21ebacked Bilibili Gaming36c124.01$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02c…2cf8backed Anyone's Legend68c124$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.441471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102c…a24cbacked Anyone's Legend69c120$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1041…574abacked Bilibili Gaming70c114.5$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x729a…1e51backed Anyone's Legend70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010252%53 W · 49 L-12.2wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-21.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Bilibili Gaming30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Anyone's Legend71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7111063.6%70 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Bilibili Gaming29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717534.7%26 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9a…d9d7backed Bilibili Gaming30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+34.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd443…4bcabacked Anyone's Legend75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e09…a4edbacked Anyone's Legend70c95$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ea…a4b6backed Anyone's Legend69c77.16$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb4…da3cbacked Anyone's Legend72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c38…1218backed Anyone's Legend52c67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.787440.5%30 W · 44 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddcd…39d9backed Anyone's Legend67c63.56$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x476b…8a58backed Bilibili Gaming30c62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.442257.3%242 W · 180 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e8…2688backed Anyone's Legend60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed Bilibili Gaming30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+123.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5819…3a93backed Anyone's Legend76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf15a…6df2backed Anyone's Legend71c49.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df5…b34abacked Anyone's Legend71c49.3$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352544%11 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Bilibili Gaming29c48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0831735.6%113 W · 204 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bf1…3db0backed Bilibili Gaming28c48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.341435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0457…99bebacked Bilibili Gaming30c45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Anyone's Legend71c42.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4160953.4%325 W · 284 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x19f1…f301backed Anyone's Legend71c28.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020157.7%116 W · 85 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b91…5b00backed Anyone's Legend72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e49…9714backed Anyone's Legend72c27.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick70cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcc7…8d1bbacked Anyone's Legend73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.