WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1e0e9f85427b719a40f444138c68c4727f6ee546b1d5dd71cebe89c3f68a4e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Golden State Valkyries, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 5,146$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.84 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 3,990$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.6 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 2,641$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,327.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 2,338$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.24 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 1,308$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.16 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…f3c5backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 1,268$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 1,043$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.43 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 927.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 775.29$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.48 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…3ba1backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 749.33$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.16 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 45c | 664.38$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.97 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 584.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 570.01$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.41 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 543.06$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.79 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 436.38$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.65 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a1…a119backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe73…7d93backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 375.78$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.89 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 358.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.45 | 641 | 52%333 W · 308 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 305.65$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 257.52$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Golden State Valkyries | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 215.7$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.85 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 169.06$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 158.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 138$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Phoenix Mercury | 61c | 108.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 106.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…b98bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 97.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 82.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…9626backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 76.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 60.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x329b…56f0backed Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 57.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…f7aebacked Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 41.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…55d7backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Phoenix Mercury | 61c | 36.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 34.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Phoenix Mercury | 61c | 33.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…9ffcbacked Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Phoenix Mercury | 55c | 27.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 25.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fed…e9cabacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 24.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 22.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 22.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5)this page
- Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 155.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 156.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 157.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 158.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.