WNBA · resolved market
Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 156.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98015b2a919ca81880b86f219c65f26012f0df4705e1c19178b083435e6c2aca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf070…ac55backed Over | 51c | 12,946$6,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,336.59 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 5,529$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,934.17 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 5,317$2,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,711.18 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe156…134bbacked Under | 51c | 4,718$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…617dbacked Under | 51c | 2,533$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.16 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 2,230$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.31 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.19 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 50c | 1,300$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 49c | 1,007$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.5 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…9bdabacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 62c | 994.68$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.9 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Under | 52c | 961.77$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 51c | 947$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.46 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 848$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.09 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Over | 48c | 813.64$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.84 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 780.69$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.08 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 700$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.07 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac40…f5b9backed Under | 75c | 659.77$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…4fadbacked Under | 50c | 625$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Over | 48c | 542$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.62 | 367 | 50.7%186 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 526.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.77 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 497.97$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.59 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 52c | 439.52$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.52 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 56c | 432.22$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.84 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 49c | 394.42$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.15 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 49c | 386$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.18 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 49c | 375$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.25 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 50c | 280.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 256$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 48c | 224.75$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.86 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 40c | 183.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 44c | 133.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 54c | 129.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 56c | 106.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 57c | 101.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 154 | 53.2%82 W · 72 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +38%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 77c | 99.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 47c | 88.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Under | 50c | 82.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 48c | 81.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Over | 51c | 74.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…8794backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 57.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 58c | 57.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Over | 50c | 56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 49c | 53.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +8.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Under | 51c | 50.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…4b43backed Over | 52c | 47.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 50c | 46.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 52c | 44.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 246 | 56.5%139 W · 107 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 51c | 40.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…2008backed Over | 46c | 38.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 211 | 50.2%106 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 48c | 26.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 58c | 26.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6be7backed Over | 60c | 25.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 50c | 24.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…ee03backed Under | 50c | 24.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…9b40backed Over | 43c | 24.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7636backed Over | 50c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 50c | 22.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8f…f96abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…a766backed Under | 53c | 19.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 156.5this page
- Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 155.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 157.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 158.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.