WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe041c6c0a82cc32d468c154e4ed2d82dfd3739e497abc1adc493679df99a5d81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Phoenix Mercuryof Golden State Valkyries, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 6,600$3,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,102 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 5,710$2,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,626.41 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 4,246$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.81 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 3,654$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.32 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 3,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 2,545$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.37 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 2,491$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.57 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 2,332$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 41c | 2,261$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.62 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 2,056$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.29 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 1,964$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.06 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fe…aac5backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 1,886$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.68 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…5122backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 1,255$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.9 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 951.15$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.55 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 814.48$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.66 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 603.22$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.37 | 203 | 40.9%83 W · 120 L | -16.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 599.99$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 579$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.13 | 411 | 45.7%188 W · 223 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 575.13$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.85 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…dcb7backed Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 565.22$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 510.9$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.22 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 485.48$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.32 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 435.37$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.07 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Golden State Valkyries | 43c | 418.64$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.74 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 387.21$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.07 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 384.57$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…de1abacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 252$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 221.1$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 211.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 210$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…93aabacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 71c | 150$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Golden State Valkyries | 71c | 150$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.13 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 140.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Phoenix Mercury | 38c | 128.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 224 | 40.2%90 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Golden State Valkyries | 44c | 115.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 192 | 57.3%110 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 56c | 112.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.36per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…4d43backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Golden State Valkyries | 40c | 98.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 70c | 94.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…e253backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 77.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…fb7cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 68.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 65.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 62.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 224 | 46%103 W · 121 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 60.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 133 | 55.6%74 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Phoenix Mercury | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 53.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…f197backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…0d64backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa560…767dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 63c | 49.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 37.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 260 | 54.6%142 W · 118 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Phoenix Mercury | 57c | 37.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df0…1376backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Phoenix Mercury | 80c | 32.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…7acbbacked Golden State Valkyries | 44c | 31.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4438…f659backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 26.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…8620backed Phoenix Mercury | 54c | 21.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 20.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-4.5)this page
- Gabby Williams: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Gabby Williams: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Gabby Williams: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 155.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 156.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 157.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 158.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-3.5)Phoenix Mercury won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5)Phoenix Mercury won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.