TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
9zof 9z, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$564,742
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$640,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564,742 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 460 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed TheMongolz26c36,787$9,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,564.351,39638.9%543 W · 853 L-41.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked 9z42c35,222$14,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,266.8441040%164 W · 246 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed TheMongolz68c25,215$17,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,023.9350054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed TheMongolz62c18,361$11,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,404.4933343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked 9z40c17,598$7,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,584.427040%28 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked 9z50c15,509$7,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,712.761,76859.2%1,047 W · 721 L+105.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TheMongolz59c13,992$8,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,255.4175758.3%441 W · 316 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 9z50c7,616$3,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,834.181,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed 9z41c6,419$2,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,787.0248040%192 W · 288 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked TheMongolz60c5,200$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12025655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed TheMongolz65c5,000$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,23045058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed TheMongolz60c4,844$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.417643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz32c4,837$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.71,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed TheMongolz64c4,450$2,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,84711149.5%55 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed TheMongolz44c4,238$1,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.9188746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed 9z40c4,150$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,510.11,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 9z47c4,124$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.661,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb517…06ddbacked TheMongolz75c4,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0006266.1%41 W · 21 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked TheMongolz40c3,959$1,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.671,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9499…d5bbbacked TheMongolz3c3,911$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed 9z40c3,694$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.46352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed TheMongolz61c3,265$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x969f…cbdcbacked TheMongolz41c3,082$1,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.3962738.8%243 W · 384 L-31.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TheMongolz40c3,037$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.562,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked TheMongolz61c3,010$1,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.052,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked TheMongolz62c2,965$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,831.161754.8%338 W · 279 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x611a…e171backed TheMongolz36c2,931$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.8817460.3%105 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed 9z45c2,871$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.6812259.8%73 W · 49 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked 9z41c2,810$1,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.2932542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked TheMongolz34c2,703$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.062,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked 9z61c2,661$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.725267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed 9z31c2,374$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.672,42944.6%1,083 W · 1,346 L-63.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed 9z60c2,317$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.6115155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ee4…ed67backed 9z50c2,270$1,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.7219340.4%78 W · 115 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed 9z38c2,235$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.9221351.2%109 W · 104 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed TheMongolz37c2,215$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.8254938.4%211 W · 338 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed 9z33c2,165$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.822,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed TheMongolz34c2,050$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.3351842.3%219 W · 299 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked TheMongolz62c2,005$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.0935460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked TheMongolz38c2,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7607454.1%40 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed TheMongolz59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18056941.3%235 W · 334 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed 9z50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00060248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43bb…26dbbacked TheMongolz46c2,000$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.892055%11 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96d2…2c6fbacked TheMongolz62c1,982$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.381838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked 9z49c1,951$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.592,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked 9z25c1,896$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.922129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked TheMongolz70c1,670$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.125,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf0…72cebacked 9z50c1,643$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.176647%31 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed 9z48c1,616$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.3287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked TheMongolz31c1,576$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.314645.7%21 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TheMongolz63c1,565$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.837,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9897…c033backed 9z40c1,520$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.647548%36 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f4d…09febacked TheMongolz61c1,500$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.12540%10 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked TheMongolz60c1,500$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90027658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed TheMongolz55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82545455.1%250 W · 204 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aeb…12b2backed 9z34c1,500$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9852958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed TheMongolz69c1,500$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.9937057.3%212 W · 158 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked 9z40c1,493$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.061,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e4…7ba4backed TheMongolz68c1,471$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00011843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f2…b422backed TheMongolz68c1,468$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012451.6%64 W · 60 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked 9z38c1,454$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.5414145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed TheMongolz25c1,454$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.4612759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed TheMongolz4c1,450$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6518837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61a…5943backed 9z32c1,435$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.479040%36 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6768…4ef1backed TheMongolz56c1,402$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked TheMongolz4c1,352$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0432832.3%106 W · 222 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4965…176fbacked TheMongolz49c1,240$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.073043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x435f…2de6backed 9z40c1,235$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.966354%34 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked TheMongolz61c1,230$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.715,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31cb…2442backed TheMongolz65c1,228$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.29748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed TheMongolz37c1,224$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.052,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked TheMongolz57c1,218$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x851a…de17backed 9z49c1,201$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.389826.5%26 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked TheMongolz56c1,189$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67016344.8%73 W · 90 L-32.6wins-0.20per pick65cpaid-34.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5cbf…af49backed TheMongolz72c1,145$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.511855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed 9z41c1,125$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.5813246.2%61 W · 71 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d7c…b7dbbacked TheMongolz38c1,053$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40023646.2%109 W · 127 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked 9z41c1,035$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.6929044.8%130 W · 160 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed TheMongolz61c1,012$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.2242651.6%220 W · 206 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed 9z41c1,006$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.3111247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+16.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed TheMongolz66c1,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6603863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked TheMongolz62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62042050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed TheMongolz1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105740%0 W · 574 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf3…9567backed 9z50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5003100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+114.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed 9z40c999.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9960434.1%206 W · 398 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed 9z62c999.99$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.9960853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked TheMongolz65c986.99$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.5417250.6%87 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe70…ffc1backed TheMongolz15c985.92$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.291428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked 9z79c983.59$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.4739970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked TheMongolz51c979.75$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.154,66143.5%2,027 W · 2,634 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x876b…d4a1backed TheMongolz41c967.99$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.3510452.9%55 W · 49 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed TheMongolz74c951.07$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70015970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xddc6…13c4backed TheMongolz66c946.09$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6272864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed TheMongolz45c940.06$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.7135054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed 9z36c937$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.1632732.4%106 W · 221 L-0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked TheMongolz65c934.15$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.342,60352.6%1,370 W · 1,233 L+97.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f0b…f901backed TheMongolz60c911$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.635953.2%191 W · 168 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed 9z77c899.99$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21130153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2be…78c2backed TheMongolz54c894.73$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.995862.1%36 W · 22 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked 9z30c869.91$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.2652834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.