TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Will Austin FC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,766 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a69…d2f7backed No25c11,428$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,826.361,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes77c7,894$6,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,787.43560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No76c5,000$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8001172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes24c4,011$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,052.291,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No57c2,967$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.411,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes24c2,500$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9004751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5f9…fa68backed No23c2,446$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.661526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Yes77c2,083$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.3236646.7%171 W · 195 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f6…e517backed Yes50c2,001$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+70.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes24c1,984$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.9473438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes77c1,670$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.3622946.7%107 W · 122 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c1,500$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1402360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes75c1,471$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.9917753.1%94 W · 83 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-22%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked No4c1,425$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.742810.7%3 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.24per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x3e59…2a66backed No3c1,269$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.072619.2%5 W · 21 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-45.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed No10c1,153$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1617244.8%77 W · 95 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No76c1,089$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.553,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No59c1,009$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.899340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3740…a935backed Yes60c1,000$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.44868.8%33 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked No8c972$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8917137.4%64 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes24c955.75$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.3772850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed No12c935.11$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.933040%12 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes40c933.88$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.3822841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a6…7971backed Yes44c918.13$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.133831.6%12 W · 26 L-6.4wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-46.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No25c916.34$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.1971443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed No3c722$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.062437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Yes68c705.56$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No67c618.28$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.9987154.6%476 W · 395 L+34.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Yes79c513.1$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.445752.6%30 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x418d…0595backed Yes75c487$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed No34c473.6$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.235954.2%32 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes70c417.21$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.671,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes24c361.68$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.8770249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Yes72c356.92$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.822441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed No10c349$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.99726.8%26 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked No29c341.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked No22c336$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.927038.6%27 W · 43 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed No26c327.02$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4819641.3%81 W · 115 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No77c324.12$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.57966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No76c272.87$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.3897146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed No38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10047240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8888…3d5cbacked Yes21c242.64$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.74683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.58per pick26cpaid+348.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No22c230$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.652639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Yes69c205.17$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8619852.5%104 W · 94 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No41c202.95$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1454949%269 W · 280 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c86…a7a3backed Yes31c161.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No76c160.28$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.81540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a5a…1179backed No68c159.98$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.79520%1 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick62cpaid-66.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d91…cdebbacked No14c130$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.53141.9%13 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed No22c122.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.67327.4%20 W · 53 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No44c95.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6945140.4%182 W · 269 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked No46c93.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.930735.2%108 W · 199 L-32.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-34.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No48c84.19$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0896756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x277b…31fabacked No22c77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.942860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+28.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca10backed No67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508344.6%37 W · 46 L+8.7wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+40.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbaba…cf38backed No67c74.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2e8…c60ebacked Yes77c65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.951662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed No76c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.616948.5%82 W · 87 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked No21c58.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.288624.4%21 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.527344.3%121 W · 152 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked No27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.531446.5%146 W · 168 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3835149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc7…4d38backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.54755.3%26 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef1…4a76backed Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+48.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No25c45.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5828721.6%62 W · 225 L-29.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed No76c45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.21,30151.2%666 W · 635 L-19.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b60…6272backed No48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes56c41.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0344350.6%224 W · 219 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No76c40.59$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.85540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick69cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4941…b03cbacked No67c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.81050%5 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb696…7a4ebacked Yes74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No76c39.6$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0180358%466 W · 337 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b9…f9ebbacked Yes76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.471070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes33c37.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d48…f398backed Yes65c33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Yes74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.72568%17 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb77…fbeebacked No67c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.491952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2439…3ed7backed Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e3…1987backed Yes59c27.05$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1683…3cc1backed Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed No77c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4810257.8%59 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked No66c23.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.414953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73db…1507backed No67c22.28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa7…736ebacked Yes52c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.812654%68 W · 58 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.33470.6%24 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No67c16.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.262556%14 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Yes76c16.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.926232.3%20 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x546a…1988backed No72c15.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe37f…6635backed No67c15.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed No77c14.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1414957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.