TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-08-22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$543,819
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$554,909

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $543,819 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04d5…66d8backed Yes55c459,084$250,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250,267.284261.9%26 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No48c77,870$37,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,841.981,44436.8%532 W · 912 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed No44c72,347$31,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,429.15825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ae…66f3backed No45c50,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No45c33,370$15,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,195.373,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No44c25,109$11,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,029.329268.5%63 W · 29 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+17.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Yes50c16,946$8,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,456.421330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No46c11,499$5,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,232.6635550.4%179 W · 176 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x719b…30e5backed No45c11,246$5,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,185.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No49c10,709$5,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,428.031,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No46c10,500$4,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,63526345.2%119 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed No47c10,366$4,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,510.936250%31 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6bf…8380backed No44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6001485.7%12 W · 2 L+5.6wins+0.40per pick46cpaid+88.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed No51c9,353$4,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,614.54751.1%24 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked No50c9,300$4,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,61710358.3%60 W · 43 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No46c8,748$4,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,721.552639.5%208 W · 318 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed No46c8,304$3,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,485.594245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No48c8,261$3,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,316.4199340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed No46c7,783$3,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,189.7720043%86 W · 114 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2829…12a0backed No45c7,618$3,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,189.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+56.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked No45c7,496$3,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,122.586349.2%31 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked No44c7,000$3,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9203658.3%21 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked No48c6,049$2,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,117.1171443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1fa…9c2cbacked Yes56c6,018$3,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,369.9425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No47c6,000$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,21070249.7%349 W · 353 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No49c5,878$2,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,006.7517740.7%72 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed No46c5,738$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,108.44348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No47c5,374$2,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,851.961172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No46c5,046$2,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,709.9697146.1%448 W · 523 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No47c5,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,63072850.7%369 W · 359 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,65011854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16e5…c50abacked No45c4,650$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,557.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed No49c4,502$2,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,296.021471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+40.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed No47c3,986$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.742437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Yes54c3,678$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.782755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed No48c3,178$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.249854.1%53 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No46c2,969$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59653046.4%246 W · 284 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes51c2,917$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.0839435.8%141 W · 253 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed No59c2,894$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked No46c2,700$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45836247.2%171 W · 191 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No53c2,574$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.864845.8%22 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No53c2,437$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.011,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes48c2,435$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.0422841.7%95 W · 133 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…db2fbacked Yes38c2,388$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41b…cc4bbacked No45c2,352$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4939…9adebacked No45c2,222$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,222.22850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaca…f5d5backed No45c2,023$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.485154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes45c2,013$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.3332848.8%160 W · 168 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0608032.5%26 W · 54 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+15.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No47c1,617$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.072360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Yes24c1,611$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.64250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed No45c1,566$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.2410042%42 W · 58 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No53c1,357$721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.3268150.8%346 W · 335 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d4…23e8backed Yes57c1,022$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.521957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x191f…4a8dbacked No43c1,022$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.5214652.1%76 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x484f…de32backed No45c1,002$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2bf…04d7backed No48c937.5$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked No46c914$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.0818456.5%104 W · 80 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No45c904$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.7237649.7%187 W · 189 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No75c888.94$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.7817753.1%94 W · 83 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-22%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed No57c866.91$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.235954.2%32 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked No78c786.46$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9522946.7%107 W · 122 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd786…59b8backed No47c673.95$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.193040%12 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed No77c670.77$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.125752.6%30 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-27.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x851b…961ebacked No49c655.92$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.922133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed No45c646$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.2910257.8%59 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5703…ad74backed Yes55c538$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Yes47c537.1$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked No52c534.82$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.262540%10 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa71d…9854backed Yes55c531.57$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.362860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No58c517.4$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.488661.6%53 W · 33 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes23c501.81$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5547240.7%192 W · 280 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked No48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No67c490.3$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.561,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed No44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.552147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0464…67dabacked No47c444.02$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.337659.2%45 W · 31 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7618…24c6backed Yes47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed No46c411.7$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.0514957.7%86 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No53c405.86$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.3612654%68 W · 58 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No46c405.79$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.0435149.6%174 W · 177 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc730…236dbacked No47c404$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.121145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed No46c391.4$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.677256.9%41 W · 31 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No48c380$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.913948.9%68 W · 71 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed No45c374.78$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.133844.7%17 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Yes55c363.69$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.052441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes56c348.21$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19540%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes27c333.33$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-16.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7525…fd3cbacked No45c326.09$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.351060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No46c324.12$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.02966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes47c321$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.872040%8 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b03…b127backed No32c314$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2142025%5 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bf…b006backed No45c310.97$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.034158.5%24 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed No48c300$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1572138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed No45c288.26$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5412058.3%70 W · 50 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed No45c282$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.15966.1%39 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7655…f0b2backed Yes50c281.86$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.111464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac6…db45backed Yes56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes47c265$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5591553%485 W · 430 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked No49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.58447.6%40 W · 44 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03ba…ab49backed Yes18c234.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.