Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d9444ca7ec8e2e2ee5e8a75a5f4dedf4e70a6f0c5321acefa752db55283a1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,234
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,234 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 1c | 14,283$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 2c | 6,869$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed No | 74c | 3,301$2,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,446.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 3c | 2,810$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 51c | 1,957$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked No | 2c | 1,700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 1,422$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 1,402$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.24 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 17c | 1,276$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.63 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,220$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.38 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed No | 2c | 1,014$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 32c | 914.07$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.4 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked Yes | 16c | 885.54$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 9c | 875.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.6 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 28c | 824.87$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.83 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 18c | 799.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.97 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 23c | 757.34$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.47 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 668.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed Yes | 19c | 518.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked No | 39c | 513.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 496.52$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Yes | 16c | 460$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 425.16$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.35 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 26c | 368.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.07 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…7fdabacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 254.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.04 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked Yes | 20c | 246.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5eb…8aedbacked Yes | 19c | 214.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 208.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.93 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…0464backed No | 10c | 202.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…d4a9backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 12c | 163.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 159$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd1…a18fbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…9ed5backed Yes | 66c | 146.4$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.88 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 71c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 20c | 110.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.48 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23be…c072backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…a79cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…2d73backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdd…8463backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +175.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 96.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…a7f9backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…3789backed No | 75c | 45.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…2d07backed No | 77c | 40.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…688dbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +163%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…bb0fbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 62c | 27.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…2c5ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…6c53backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…502ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.