TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Winter Games 2026: Will USA or Norway earn more medals?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Norwayof USA, Norway
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,548 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed USA11c8,520$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.647133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed USA16c5,533$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.91520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-69.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Norway78c5,028$3,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.991070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked USA13c4,706$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.2360%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed USA34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed USA10c1,372$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.72742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick23cpaid+81.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed USA18c1,262$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.277627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed USA5c1,194$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.72448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked USA17c1,078$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.238236.6%30 W · 52 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed USA9c999.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-54.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314c…69ddbacked Norway66c992.91$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6741…e0f9backed Norway72c933.25$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed USA19c927.57$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.41717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed USA5c904.02$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.65630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b54…5e38backed Norway71c898.86$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked USA18c825.07$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3295…70f6backed Norway80c540$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1101100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9e7…045abacked USA23c520.95$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.44911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-82.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc35e…d368backed Norway75c424.83$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.831145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x82e4…1d09backed Norway67c412.34$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Norway74c407.13$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.13450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1203…77ddbacked USA8c406.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed USA11c380$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.11711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed USA30c337.63$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.926123%14 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed USA15c282.89$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked USA21c273.17$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.855151%26 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed USA7c271.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.74310%0 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x137e…5292backed USA13c261.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ddf…4479backed Norway72c238$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed USA36c219.28$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked USA22c202.41$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.336137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33b3…d03dbacked Norway65c197.77$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe33b…6de8backed USA33c163.23$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.164020%8 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c5f…7c46backed USA7c156.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b84…ef8bbacked Norway70c142.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Norway77c122.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.791323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-60.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed USA22c117$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.241717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-77.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Norway76c104.17$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255366%35 W · 18 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+40%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Norway75c103.63$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.451330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd1…070dbacked USA22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked USA12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8c…da76backed USA24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeefb…d11fbacked USA21c93.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1209…0133backed Norway61c86.76$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.47475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed USA32c82.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5150%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ff7…c712backed Norway67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed USA29c73.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+57.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad46…b0f0backed USA34c73.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd9…b321backed Norway69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.46333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac43…d08abacked Norway71c70.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Norway71c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a6e…2100backed Norway67c59.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-78.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe2d…7801backed Norway68c58.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8267…918dbacked USA35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed USA36c54.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.695318.9%10 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ff…2625backed Norway70c54$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd88c…9207backed Norway75c53.38$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.38333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Norway76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-70.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Norway64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf827…7992backed Norway72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a0f…6c12backed Norway69c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd246…fec7backed Norway79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Norway77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Norway79c46.45$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7512100%12 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32bc…110fbacked Norway65c45.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.91250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b2…c753backed Norway67c44.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2903…aa41backed Norway68c44.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.43666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec48…d04cbacked Norway73c44.19$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c36…4a2dbacked Norway72c42.58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf7…50fabacked USA32c42.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea9…1a13backed USA28c41.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed USA27c40.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6785…22e8backed USA37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78a…61c4backed Norway65c38.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.46560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…9bf1backed Norway64c36.14$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.01633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Norway69c32.62$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.112770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7146…0978backed Norway68c32.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.473100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe634…94b6backed Norway66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5dd…9be0backed Norway65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d12…4fc0backed Norway66c29.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.09875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25a…00e6backed Norway68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x352f…f160backed Norway74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7433…7851backed Norway65c24.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.44955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cfa…b72cbacked Norway69c21.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb778…0bcbbacked Norway64c20.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba3…1aecbacked Norway72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe891…465dbacked Norway67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…7c7abacked Norway64c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf96…7b0bbacked Norway59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf88c…7bccbacked Norway71c18.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Norway64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69d4…3f2abacked Norway67c15.03$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de7…1e31backed Norway76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.65475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.