TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,384

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,407 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere23c13,565$3,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,138.273,25950.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L+98.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x309b…2c72backed Natus Vincere43c3,419$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4742544%11 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994d…3d8dbacked Natus Vincere19c2,624$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.452834.3%181 W · 347 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked MOUZ64c2,129$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.5226045%117 W · 143 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Natus Vincere20c2,090$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.1357422.5%129 W · 445 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed MOUZ60c1,955$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked MOUZ64c1,863$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.6165950.4%332 W · 327 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Natus Vincere40c1,560$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62424846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ57c1,510$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.231,61945.5%737 W · 882 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere40c1,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.9946949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x959f…9e2fbacked MOUZ73c1,322$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.639258.7%54 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ58c1,271$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.221,06049%519 W · 541 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked MOUZ58c1,180$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.876657.8%443 W · 323 L+3.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed MOUZ52c1,161$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.9814532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x861f…a189backed Natus Vincere9c1,156$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.6992152.6%484 W · 437 L+16.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5092…fccdbacked MOUZ63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3703737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed MOUZ52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4806253.2%33 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb555…0c4bbacked Natus Vincere42c975.01$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.339038.9%35 W · 55 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked MOUZ76c973.04$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.0345162.3%281 W · 170 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Natus Vincere18c927.71$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.545,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x417f…f97bbacked Natus Vincere14c888.41$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.355133.3%17 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Natus Vincere42c766.79$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.44146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Natus Vincere22c697$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.321,04044%458 W · 582 L-22.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked MOUZ60c678.1$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.6432548.3%157 W · 168 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff6…5d2dbacked Natus Vincere24c637.15$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-69.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x717f…1501backed Natus Vincere33c557.95$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.66742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Natus Vincere14c549$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.442,79837.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L-138.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd5f…8a9bbacked MOUZ56c537.93$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.9313540.7%55 W · 80 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed Natus Vincere10c519.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016947.9%81 W · 88 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e1a…d5a3backed Natus Vincere4c506.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.022634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ60c496.03$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.0945859%270 W · 188 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere48c494.08$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.163,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Natus Vincere46c479$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.961,37845.2%623 W · 755 L+17.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x389b…8d69backed Natus Vincere24c451.42$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.342339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc48a…bfc6backed MOUZ60c425.2$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8658…41c6backed MOUZ60c420.42$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.4410354.4%56 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ab6…ee04backed MOUZ75c404.33$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.252955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa4…16e3backed MOUZ53c399.98$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.9976546.7%357 W · 408 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9390…6a88backed MOUZ51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.161631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere8c354.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,18122.5%266 W · 915 L+3.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Natus Vincere16c337.62$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2517647.7%84 W · 92 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5114…8346backed MOUZ61c328.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.252653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Natus Vincere30c311.78$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.821,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Natus Vincere44c300$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.26829.4%20 W · 48 L-8.2wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Natus Vincere8c299.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0816846.4%78 W · 90 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb649…e988backed MOUZ78c288.45$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.457946.8%37 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere37c276.76$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.42,09241.6%871 W · 1,221 L-50.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47a1…2169backed Natus Vincere15c260.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick40cpaid+42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere31c256.43$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.823,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Natus Vincere32c254.54$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.242,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62f9…ae42backed Natus Vincere42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014751%75 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Natus Vincere42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere33c227.84$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.066,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588d…3f41backed Natus Vincere22c224.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5083643.5%364 W · 472 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e6…84a8backed MOUZ53c220.92$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.348158%47 W · 34 L+8.1wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xde19…3a14backed MOUZ59c213.88$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.8812552.8%66 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd523…594bbacked Natus Vincere25c203.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed MOUZ60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809433%31 W · 63 L-10.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed MOUZ77c200$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4593261.7%575 W · 357 L-4.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4946…89d0backed Natus Vincere51c199.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+33.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Natus Vincere32c196.8$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.954,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Natus Vincere11c190$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.760147.4%285 W · 316 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc5…7b98backed Natus Vincere54c186.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac23…c1fcbacked MOUZ60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.677138%27 W · 44 L-9.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.3%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Natus Vincere39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.981,30526.4%345 W · 960 L-89.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-29.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere42c137.86$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.224,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Natus Vincere8c134.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.93,94936.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L-201.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86fd…8002backed Natus Vincere41c121.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5013950.4%70 W · 69 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere24c119.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.92,10216.8%353 W · 1,749 L-286.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-47.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xd537…0f7cbacked MOUZ74c116.23$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4533457.8%193 W · 141 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69db…283abacked Natus Vincere19c109.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2118336.6%67 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked MOUZ62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3840655.7%226 W · 180 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x746e…04dabacked Natus Vincere22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227643.4%33 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+23.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ba…7ea5backed MOUZ62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3842057.6%242 W · 178 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed MOUZ50c95.36$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.6878348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Natus Vincere46c92.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4859647.3%282 W · 314 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7386…b1debacked MOUZ48c83.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.333125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed MOUZ58c79.76$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere45c78.84$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1126046.9%122 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6818…8f14backed MOUZ56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4318037.8%68 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed MOUZ60c66.23$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2322843.9%100 W · 128 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cbc…3b01backed Natus Vincere16c63.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0970%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x30d5…ea80backed MOUZ49c61.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.221457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed Natus Vincere33c60.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0621137.4%79 W · 132 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Natus Vincere36c55.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed Natus Vincere55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3098856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed MOUZ55c52.64$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.973758.2%429 W · 308 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2f9…3f4fbacked Natus Vincere41c52.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.632128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04db…7703backed MOUZ62c51.8$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.841645.9%191 W · 225 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf12d…7350backed Natus Vincere40c50.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.423647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed Natus Vincere42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217560%45 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1532…1dadbacked MOUZ50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2210660.4%64 W · 42 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad97…4f4dbacked Natus Vincere43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16de…2ebdbacked MOUZ60c45.25$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.253470.6%24 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9a…73fabacked MOUZ63c41.08$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.239353.2%209 W · 184 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6965…a7e2backed MOUZ49c40.72$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.723046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6520…ea4bbacked Natus Vincere44c34.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb0…d1bbbacked Natus Vincere40c33.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.422321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-55.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked Natus Vincere54c31.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0621354.5%116 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ce…c8dabacked MOUZ63c29.11$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.783100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.