UFC · resolved market
Raposo vs. Maksum
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f784fa04dd42ddb8a5c979646b4df0e672b172cf258993b530732d80d89488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raposoof Raposo, Maksum
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Raposo | 45c | 32,463$14,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,785.75 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Maksum | 55c | 27,956$15,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,258.97 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Raposo | 19c | 17,849$3,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,454.7 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Raposo | 19c | 9,399$1,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,640.22 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Maksum | 77c | 5,732$4,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,420.52 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Raposo | 19c | 4,165$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,373.63 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Raposo | 20c | 2,192$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752.51 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Maksum | 1c | 1,990$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…7d29backed Maksum | 80c | 1,703$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa81b…0663backed Raposo | 22c | 1,699$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Maksum | 59c | 1,277$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.24 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Raposo | 45c | 1,244$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.17 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Raposo | 20c | 1,210$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.37 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Maksum | 50c | 1,210$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.69 | 149 | 29.5%44 W · 105 L | -15.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Raposo | 57c | 1,063$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.77 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…e90fbacked Maksum | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Maksum | 49c | 993.05$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.61 | 105 | 22.9%24 W · 81 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Raposo | 65c | 936.13$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.37 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Raposo | 18c | 877.14$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.25 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Raposo | 19c | 700$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Raposo | 19c | 700$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Maksum | 80c | 659$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.2 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Maksum | 79c | 539.2$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Maksum | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Raposo | 19c | 493$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.33 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Raposo | 17c | 425.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Maksum | 77c | 412.16$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.19 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Maksum | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.88 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Raposo | 20c | 375$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Raposo | 19c | 307.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Maksum | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Raposo | 20c | 263$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed Maksum | 58c | 257.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Maksum | 48c | 254.32$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.25 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Raposo | 20c | 249.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Raposo | 22c | 220$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.2 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…900fbacked Raposo | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Maksum | 51c | 199.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Maksum | 48c | 196.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Raposo | 43c | 190$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e5…1d48backed Raposo | 24c | 166.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Maksum | 52c | 158.57$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Maksum | 62c | 158.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 318 | 55%175 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Raposo | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Maksum | 53c | 140.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Raposo | 50c | 124.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.47 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Maksum | 78c | 121.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.74 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569d…84b3backed Raposo | 20c | 117.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Raposo | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Raposo | 47c | 105.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Raposo | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731c…a252backed Raposo | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…1778backed Raposo | 20c | 98.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Maksum | 75c | 92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…fcbfbacked Raposo | 66c | 91.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Maksum | 49c | 87.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Maksum | 80c | 85.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Raposo | 47c | 83.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae3…47ccbacked Raposo | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Maksum | 45c | 72.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…809dbacked Maksum | 18c | 67.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Maksum | 55c | 66.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…20b3backed Maksum | 62c | 66.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…2589backed Raposo | 67c | 65.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…aa71backed Maksum | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Raposo | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Maksum | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…6d82backed Maksum | 58c | 46.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…9b3fbacked Raposo | 24c | 41.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -6.7wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Maksum | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Raposo | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Maksum | 58c | 23.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…c956backed Maksum | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 229 | 53.3%122 W · 107 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Maksum | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…7405backed Maksum | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Raposo vs. Maksumthis page
- Barnett vs. AbdelwahabAbdelwahab won
- Bautista vs. NurmagomedovNurmagomedov won
- Dern vs. JandirobaDern won
- Haqparast vs. SalkilldSalkilld won
- Klein vs. RebeckiKlein won
- Park vs. AliskerovAliskerov won
- Rakic vs. MurzakanovMurzakanov won
- Volkov vs. AlmeidaVolkov won
- Wood vs. DelgadoWood won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.