UFC · resolved market
Dana White's Contender Series: Mario Piazzon vs. Guilherme Uriel (Heavyweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc168cfa07932f96a3ef2874d2f89780d3c25792642662b81ec2605334160a60d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guilherme Urielof Mario Piazzon, Guilherme Uriel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Mario Piazzon | 39c | 2,156$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.76 | 178 | 51.7%92 W · 86 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Mario Piazzon | 42c | 2,050$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.21 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Guilherme Uriel | 59c | 1,785$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.97 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…d4d5backed Mario Piazzon | 42c | 1,437$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Guilherme Uriel | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Guilherme Uriel | 59c | 708.46$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.47 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…42c1backed Mario Piazzon | 42c | 596.58$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Guilherme Uriel | 57c | 504$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.72 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Mario Piazzon | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Mario Piazzon | 40c | 499.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 281 | 43.1%121 W · 160 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Guilherme Uriel | 59c | 491.75$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…e9f8backed Mario Piazzon | 44c | 457.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Guilherme Uriel | 58c | 453$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Guilherme Uriel | 64c | 449.42$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed Mario Piazzon | 38c | 400$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ff5ebacked Guilherme Uriel | 59c | 372.88$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Guilherme Uriel | 58c | 352.69$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked Mario Piazzon | 42c | 328.62$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Guilherme Uriel | 56c | 298.32$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.26 | 171 | 50.9%87 W · 84 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Guilherme Uriel | 62c | 296$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Mario Piazzon | 38c | 276.42$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…d67bbacked Guilherme Uriel | 64c | 236.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Guilherme Uriel | 60c | 209.5$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed Mario Piazzon | 41c | 206.07$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Mario Piazzon | 41c | 205.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Guilherme Uriel | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Guilherme Uriel | 58c | 198$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Guilherme Uriel | 62c | 175.55$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Guilherme Uriel | 62c | 168.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Guilherme Uriel | 58c | 127.84$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 357 | 64.7%231 W · 126 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Mario Piazzon | 39c | 116.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Guilherme Uriel | 62c | 112$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 385 | 53.2%205 W · 180 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Guilherme Uriel | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda79…daecbacked Mario Piazzon | 42c | 102.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Guilherme Uriel | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Guilherme Uriel | 66c | 82.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Guilherme Uriel | 57c | 79.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…86fdbacked Guilherme Uriel | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 252 | 60.3%152 W · 100 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…7aa2backed Mario Piazzon | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Mario Piazzon | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Guilherme Uriel | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ce…0e0abacked Mario Piazzon | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…a298backed Guilherme Uriel | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b56…a082backed Guilherme Uriel | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Guilherme Uriel | 62c | 38.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 360 | 48.3%174 W · 186 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Mario Piazzon | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Guilherme Uriel | 76c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf26b…f3b8backed Guilherme Uriel | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Guilherme Uriel | 58c | 31.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Guilherme Uriel | 62c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Mario Piazzon | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…d183backed Guilherme Uriel | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Guilherme Uriel | 60c | 27.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…bf9fbacked Guilherme Uriel | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2766…1e02backed Mario Piazzon | 44c | 23.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.