NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd24df9f12c4cd4ca67b5944b2cb350926ea48c232bc63a57f2b6c09cb34f19b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Kings | 48c | 21,538$10,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,261.78 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 53c | 15,549$8,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,273.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…4d03backed Kings | 20c | 8,249$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Kings | 20c | 8,232$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.4 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 24c | 4,976$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lakers | 53c | 4,773$2,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,265.9 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Kings | 44c | 4,209$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,852 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Lakers | 54c | 4,080$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876.91 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed Kings | 46c | 3,333$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.18 | 214 | 46.7%100 W · 114 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Kings | 18c | 2,054$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.64 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Lakers | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Lakers | 54c | 1,671$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.77 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers | 52c | 1,404$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.87 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Lakers | 53c | 1,234$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.98 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Kings | 46c | 1,174$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.04 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers | 49c | 1,137$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.02 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Lakers | 54c | 985$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.9 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Lakers | 55c | 728.25$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.71 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Lakers | 54c | 611.11$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.11 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Kings | 11c | 487.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 123 | 24.4%30 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Lakers | 58c | 311.88$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Lakers | 52c | 300$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Lakers | 54c | 299$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lakers | 53c | 235$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Lakers | 54c | 231.61$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…7057backed Lakers | 59c | 213.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 182 | 56.6%103 W · 79 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Kings | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Kings | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 53c | 140.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Kings | 23c | 137$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Kings | 23c | 126.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 41c | 112.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kings | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Kings | 21c | 99.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kings | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Kings | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…cbf1backed Kings | 50c | 80.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Kings | 23c | 77.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Lakers | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Kings | 44c | 68.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…e2c1backed Kings | 45c | 65.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kings | 45c | 50.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba8…bc05backed Kings | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Lakers | 54c | 42.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Lakers | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c75…1be5backed Kings | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Lakers | 53c | 33.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kings | 43c | 24.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Lakers | 55c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Lakers | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-7.5)Lakers won
- Kings vs. LakersLakers won
- Kings vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Kings vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Kings vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-13.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.