Fifa International · resolved market
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5c251333b118c23c1615617fdaa3155b8a3587fbff03ffc7804b5a4fdac8609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 14c | 874.83$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 10c | 806.17$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 22c | 756.78$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.89 | 888 | 38.2%339 W · 549 L | +37.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 73c | 681.01$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.26 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Yes | 13c | 648.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…05c0backed Yes | 62c | 487.58$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.26 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 476.21$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.87 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 421.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 71c | 257.48$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 249$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.13 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 29c | 220.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…2eacbacked Yes | 68c | 189.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 22c | 167.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.19 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 41c | 160$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 52c | 146.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 123.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked No | 37c | 115$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 44c | 106.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 106.4$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 104.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047f…f959backed No | 34c | 103.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 41c | 99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed No | 35c | 95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2fe…f0fbbacked Yes | 33c | 90.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 70.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…1006backed No | 46c | 62.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 46c | 58.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 486 | 36.6%178 W · 308 L | -48.4wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 22c | 57.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55f8…2544backed No | 36c | 55.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 51.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x783e…5a19backed Yes | 36c | 48.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 44c | 45.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 54c | 42.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | -11.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 46c | 39.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 34.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 44c | 29.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 63c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed Yes | 59c | 21.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
- Will Haiti be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
- Will Panama be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.