Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a3707ab9212e1535fd0a5070830c7aaa357101b707cd33cb960dd6ce4840ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 9c | 5,535$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.78 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 2,197$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.3 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 14c | 888$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.12 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 53c | 589.32$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.4 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 390.5$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 387.77$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 4c | 341.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 265$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 239.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 219$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 66c | 214$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 39c | 177.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 63c | 159.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 153$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6f…958ebacked No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 34c | 145.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.71 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 133.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 127.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 113$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 108.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 56c | 105.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc6…a78bbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc1…eba2backed Yes | 31c | 91.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +184.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 39c | 90.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 28c | 89.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 88.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8b…e621backed Yes | 39c | 77.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 75.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 67.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 39c | 60.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 18c | 59.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…cf94backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed No | 63c | 51.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 47c | 49.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 37c | 43.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 41.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…4a4bbacked Yes | 40c | 36.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…f45bbacked Yes | 48c | 26.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…0b14backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 9?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 9?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.