TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DRXof DRX, OKSavingsBank BRION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,865
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,865 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe478…610ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION1c7,332$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2735.5%4 W · 69 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-64.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed DRX54c6,823$3,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,138.6520438.2%78 W · 126 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed DRX57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,15026942.4%114 W · 155 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed OKSavingsBank BRION46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,299.9982352.7%434 W · 389 L+41.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd5d…6d68backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c4,421$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…163fbacked DRX55c4,421$2,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,989.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed OKSavingsBank BRION44c2,954$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.591,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe486…0c26backed OKSavingsBank BRION5c2,464$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.62193.2%7 W · 212 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked DRX57c2,421$1,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.11,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed OKSavingsBank BRION46c2,181$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.871,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed OKSavingsBank BRION25c2,149$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.1531644.3%140 W · 176 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c2,087$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.151,00354%542 W · 461 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca2…93f7backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c2,085$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.782532%8 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-44.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfc7c…d9d7backed OKSavingsBank BRION17c2,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.534436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed DRX55c1,926$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.7281143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fbc…62a3backed DRX54c1,800$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.9963161.2%386 W · 245 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION46c1,589$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73111454.4%62 W · 52 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3532…3711backed OKSavingsBank BRION43c1,551$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.933348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed OKSavingsBank BRION48c1,488$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7141,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION10c1,400$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14744550.1%223 W · 222 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e78…29d0backed DRX57c1,340$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.0224248.3%117 W · 125 L+0.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OKSavingsBank BRION15c1,268$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.011,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf84e…6cbebacked DRX55c1,115$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.748151.9%42 W · 39 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0c…a715backed OKSavingsBank BRION48c1,050$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.425269.8%176 W · 76 L+13.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x674f…4382backed OKSavingsBank BRION1c1,009$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick15cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed OKSavingsBank BRION48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc04a…af81backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf50c…83edbacked DRX55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba0c…f837backed OKSavingsBank BRION47c1,000$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.9421857.8%126 W · 92 L+18.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+16%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed OKSavingsBank BRION47c999.99$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.991,02952.3%538 W · 491 L+27.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION15c849.22$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.111,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0826…8738backed OKSavingsBank BRION46c800$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3681145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe084…04c0backed DRX54c800$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3681154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked DRX53c798.14$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.331,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OKSavingsBank BRION43c742.89$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.962,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa132…eebdbacked DRX55c700$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3152751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x905c…de69backed OKSavingsBank BRION43c700$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed DRX53c700$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed OKSavingsBank BRION46c700$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32471249.2%350 W · 362 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b8…6631backed DRX54c700$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee9d…85f1backed DRX57c700$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30313056.9%74 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a96…203cbacked OKSavingsBank BRION43c699.98$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27040347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed DRX63c593$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.1323547.7%112 W · 123 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed OKSavingsBank BRION12c561.98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7252438.9%204 W · 320 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed OKSavingsBank BRION46c510$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.530050.3%151 W · 149 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed OKSavingsBank BRION3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fd…849ebacked DRX55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2255141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe888…0364backed OKSavingsBank BRION48c492.78$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2361723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.5wins-0.26per pick50cpaid-51.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked DRX56c448.21$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.2146552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION45c441.3$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016347.2%77 W · 86 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION47c430$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.12,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf4…e3a6backed OKSavingsBank BRION43c427.31$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.7414038.6%54 W · 86 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked DRX57c421.93$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.9376955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa188…3fccbacked DRX55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6421060%126 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x49a6…a658backed DRX57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8850051.6%258 W · 242 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked OKSavingsBank BRION47c319.15$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,18548.1%570 W · 615 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked DRX68c313.5$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9628855.9%161 W · 127 L-20.1wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c304.44$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13847951.4%246 W · 233 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed DRX57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12986758.1%504 W · 363 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed DRX60c292$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6250643.1%218 W · 288 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed OKSavingsBank BRION15c283.93$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.751,03547.2%489 W · 546 L+26.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec24…9544backed DRX56c279.64$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.644440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked OKSavingsBank BRION45c269.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.517826.4%47 W · 131 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-17.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked DRX59c265.69$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8834742.1%146 W · 201 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc887…c181backed DRX60c251.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6710251%52 W · 50 L-9.8wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7c…bfd7backed OKSavingsBank BRION16c220.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.334146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd38…50c3backed DRX56c214.55$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.553132.3%10 W · 21 L-6.3wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked OKSavingsBank BRION6c212.4$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7456317.2%97 W · 466 L-16.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked DRX55c209$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0530545.2%138 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed DRX67c208.18$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.621,72629.4%507 W · 1,219 L-124.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked DRX54c201$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.462,30339.4%907 W · 1,396 L-82.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed DRX57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4639749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed OKSavingsBank BRION46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.639750.1%199 W · 198 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde2a…6bfebacked OKSavingsBank BRION15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3072234.1%246 W · 476 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0563…8b03backed DRX55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9068443.6%298 W · 386 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed OKSavingsBank BRION43c196.12$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3324240.9%99 W · 143 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed OKSavingsBank BRION45c188.76$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.941,12930%339 W · 790 L-27.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed OKSavingsBank BRION30c177.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3833552.8%177 W · 158 L+15.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked OKSavingsBank BRION46c173.91$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8095951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf012…1a19backed OKSavingsBank BRION23c172.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4038034.7%132 W · 248 L-1.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f05…85c5backed DRX55c158$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.139861.8%246 W · 152 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed OKSavingsBank BRION40c151.67$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.671,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1976…e363backed OKSavingsBank BRION19c147.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.355240.4%21 W · 31 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f3e…41c9backed OKSavingsBank BRION20c142.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.553619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-67.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe14c…c2bbbacked DRX55c140$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638457.1%48 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked DRX66c138$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0231439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed DRX66c137.99$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0270443.9%309 W · 395 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed OKSavingsBank BRION30c132.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.261,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2249…3005backed DRX54c130$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.828458.5%166 W · 118 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed DRX53c127.66$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…1007backed OKSavingsBank BRION47c127.66$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcecf…e84fbacked OKSavingsBank BRION8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae72…f49dbacked OKSavingsBank BRION42c122$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.938335%134 W · 249 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked OKSavingsBank BRION43c111.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9112644.4%56 W · 70 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked DRX56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1470752.9%374 W · 333 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x968f…2a1fbacked DRX54c104.65$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1422646.5%105 W · 121 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6b7…fe5cbacked OKSavingsBank BRION46c103.45$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b3…48a9backed OKSavingsBank BRION19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,02148%490 W · 531 L+26.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.