CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners (BO3)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9bdd844d4672c5b1f43da2f4b8faf2ee9697a03d5791e7f9bc23fbabeeccdd2

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Spiritof Spirit, Sinners
Resolved: Jan 16, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $222,841
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $252,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,841 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbec7…5977backed Sinners	9c	30,000$2,622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,622.06	576	47.6%274 W · 302 L	-25.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda34…01a8backed Sinners	7c	20,835$1,407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,407.01	116	33.6%39 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe42b…7ea9backed Sinners	3c	9,287$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.6	508	33.5%170 W · 338 L	+14.2wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Sinners	12c	6,640$804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.23	1,040	44%458 W · 582 L	-22.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0ac…fd51backed Sinners	7c	5,422$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Sinners	10c	4,539$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.71	298	55%164 W · 134 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0720…b1aebacked Sinners	8c	4,334$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.72	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+35.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a9…e80cbacked Sinners	5c	4,026$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.08	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Sinners	0c	3,987$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.21	1,500	9.9%148 W · 1,352 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Sinners	3c	3,956$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.69	1,278	21.9%280 W · 998 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Sinners	5c	3,941$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	124	50%62 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Sinners	12c	3,800$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456	152	49.3%75 W · 77 L	-7.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Sinners	9c	3,000$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	239	32.2%77 W · 162 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Sinners	6c	3,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.83	463	40.8%189 W · 274 L	-9.8wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Sinners	6c	2,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5,830	37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L	+79.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Sinners	9c	2,137$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.18	303	35.6%108 W · 195 L	-13.3wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Sinners	8c	2,045$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.61	124	49.2%61 W · 63 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Sinners	8c	2,020$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.11	392	39.8%156 W · 236 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Sinners	9c	2,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	1,259	42.5%535 W · 724 L	+20.6wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Sinners	15c	1,890$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.36	120	27.5%33 W · 87 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb2…ca8ebacked Sinners	6c	1,692$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.19	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7daf…0ec8backed Sinners	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+19%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Sinners	6c	1,661$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.64	256	34.4%88 W · 168 L	-12.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sinners	8c	1,645$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.54	329	30.4%100 W · 229 L	-21.9wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sinners	6c	1,626$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.65	601	47.4%285 W · 316 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f67…fe3cbacked Sinners	4c	1,319$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.31	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5019…74cdbacked Sinners	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	116	30.2%35 W · 81 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Sinners	8c	1,200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	972	30%292 W · 680 L	-23.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x998f…75d1backed Sinners	12c	1,166$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.33	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf27e…2748backed Sinners	18c	1,148$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.91	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe3…d075backed Sinners	10c	1,135$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.58	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Sinners	1c	1,104$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Sinners	5c	1,010$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	258	45.7%118 W · 140 L	-18.3wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Sinners	1c	1,005$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	186	24.2%45 W · 141 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Sinners	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Sinners	7c	999.91$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.99	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6857…9f77backed Sinners	16c	849.97$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-4.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc1b…df86backed Sinners	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Sinners	3c	699.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	417	16.5%69 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88e0…e272backed Sinners	7c	659.81$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.94	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Sinners	9c	600$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	94	42.6%40 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe321…bc47backed Sinners	7c	599.93$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+5.1wins	+0.11per pick	33cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Sinners	5c	513.4$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	204	33.8%69 W · 135 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb70c…41d5backed Sinners	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	342	35.4%121 W · 221 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6179…6f80backed Sinners	9c	490.95$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.37	503	40.2%202 W · 301 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc328…d945backed Sinners	12c	464.67$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.76	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4a8…68ebbacked Sinners	14c	426.72$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Sinners	9c	418.99$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.71	259	41.3%107 W · 152 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…1dccbacked Sinners	5c	381.23$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e20…8e0ebacked Sinners	14c	368.13$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+60.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0969…b289backed Sinners	8c	353.57$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.29	192	47.9%92 W · 100 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Sinners	9c	298.39$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.86	105	49.5%52 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x223e…fc48backed Sinners	15c	274.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed Sinners	8c	251$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.08	164	50.6%83 W · 81 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb789…1eccbacked Sinners	7c	214.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	57cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f7…02d5backed Sinners	10c	200.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked Sinners	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1,181	22.5%266 W · 915 L	+3.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce11…4a49backed Sinners	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x110c…d9c6backed Sinners	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	87	33.3%29 W · 58 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7c2…190bbacked Sinners	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	66	43.9%29 W · 37 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6281…097cbacked Sinners	11c	182.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-46.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa134…3ba2backed Sinners	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	43cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Sinners	10c	168.29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.21	79	29.1%23 W · 56 L	-7.6wins	-0.10per pick	39cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…9a3bbacked Sinners	15c	161.49$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea9e…d3fbbacked Sinners	8c	147.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	176	33%58 W · 118 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8666…a368backed Sinners	9c	129.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	80	32.5%26 W · 54 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb9…f39abacked Sinners	17c	119.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	377	57.8%218 W · 159 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Sinners	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	319	33.5%107 W · 212 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Sinners	17c	82.35$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7124…93eabacked Sinners	17c	64.75$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners (BO3)this page
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners - Map 1 WinnerSpirit won
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5)Spirit won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Sinners (BO3)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event