Tennis · resolved market
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee8af9f6fb4f771a192c978548cd06d687f2cfcae407abea46159dbd98b7211f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jannik Sinnerof Jannik Sinner, Alexei Popyrin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $507,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $464,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Alexei Popyrin | 1c | 57,789$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.9 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 45,044$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.17 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…81c2backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 27,500$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Alexei Popyrin | 2c | 22,592$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.52 | 183 | 15.8%29 W · 154 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…4463backed Alexei Popyrin | 1c | 22,199$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 274 | 31.8%87 W · 187 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…4c4fbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 21,273$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.69 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 16,528$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.92 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…2151backed Alexei Popyrin | 1c | 10,656$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.52 | 389 | 11.6%45 W · 344 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…5201backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 10,505$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.48 | 1,421 | 28.6%407 W · 1,014 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…70dbbacked Alexei Popyrin | 0c | 10,088$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7668…fa36backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 10,010$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b8…da73backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 10,005$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…f541backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 7,940$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 7,807$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b63…bdd3backed Alexei Popyrin | 1c | 7,650$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ac…ad7fbacked Alexei Popyrin | 0c | 5,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…cc07backed Alexei Popyrin | 2c | 4,993$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Alexei Popyrin | 2c | 4,795$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.25 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…8a01backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 4,612$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3a…eb16backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 4,409$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b7…726ebacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 3,995$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 3,704$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 3,529$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 3,500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…a4bbbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 3,300$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 219 | 37.9%83 W · 136 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…1080backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 3,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 3,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 689 | 35%241 W · 448 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…9dd0backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 3,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 3,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Alexei Popyrin | 1c | 2,934$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 2,860$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 2,703$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…0301backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 2,682$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…9326backed Alexei Popyrin | 2c | 2,650$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 277 | 39%108 W · 169 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee3…6fe5backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 2,352$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb788…2b73backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 2,286$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +450.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Alexei Popyrin | 1c | 2,235$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 2,036$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,810$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,541$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…c83bbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,351$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 1,290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 278 | 36.7%102 W · 176 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,281$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 1,077 | 52.4%564 W · 513 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Alexei Popyrin | 2c | 1,218$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…ecdbbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 489 | 35.8%175 W · 314 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bc…377ebacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 18.5%46 W · 203 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…d35bbacked Alexei Popyrin | 2c | 1,150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 302 | 35.1%106 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…46c8backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 1,093$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 228 | 21.1%48 W · 180 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,051$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Alexei Popyrin | 5c | 1,050$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…0d19backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 428 | 39.7%170 W · 258 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…24e3backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f39…7a21backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 993.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 844.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…e943backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 756.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 24.7%53 W · 162 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…de7cbacked Alexei Popyrin | 2c | 750.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 710$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 708.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 643.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 503 | 40%201 W · 302 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c4…beb1backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 631.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 608.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2d0backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 551.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 433 | 58.4%253 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…df67backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 540.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca1…4268backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 529.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 155 | 31.6%49 W · 106 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 503.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…1dcbbacked Alexei Popyrin | 2c | 484.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Alexei Popyrin | 6c | 453.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 528 | 54.9%290 W · 238 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…17a6backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 411.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…5e5fbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 386.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef3…df7fbacked Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 382.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 108 | 16.7%18 W · 90 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 377.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 524 | 57.4%301 W · 223 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 340$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 279 | 31.9%89 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187e…70d3backed Alexei Popyrin | 3c | 329.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 11.9%23 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Alexei Popyrin | 4c | 248.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 504 | 42.7%215 W · 289 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrinthis page
- Jannik Sinner vs. Alexei Popyrin: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs PopyrinSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Popyrin: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.