World Politics · resolved market
Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf10fc1097d16077113970a723fec5549d74b4afdc11df45645033cac49794e6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 28c | 3,018$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.11 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 1,080$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.32 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…86c3backed Yes | 35c | 975.41$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 72c | 594$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.68 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 572.02$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.68 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 36c | 537.74$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.74 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 516.87$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.15 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…66a1backed Yes | 41c | 514.92$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…18b5backed Yes | 45c | 496.26$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd47e…de62backed Yes | 70c | 430.89$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…d32abacked Yes | 58c | 430.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ae89backed Yes | 26c | 418.71$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 62c | 405.06$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.43 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 55c | 397.73$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.73 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…3e0dbacked Yes | 73c | 396.42$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 346.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 60c | 343.69$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.1 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 5c | 320.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed Yes | 62c | 266.73$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 233$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 64c | 217.65$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 200$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 190$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 15c | 185$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 74c | 178.47$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 39c | 156$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 78c | 155$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 29c | 145.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28f…841abacked No | 13c | 138.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1296…abbfbacked Yes | 40c | 136.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Yes | 22c | 136.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 75c | 134.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 128$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 36c | 123.39$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…9129backed No | 70c | 119.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f5…1e93backed Yes | 63c | 115$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fc…7c00backed Yes | 56c | 109.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 19c | 109.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 30c | 96.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 72c | 88.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 33c | 88.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…3a1ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +232%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 35c | 64.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 60.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 43c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 57.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 56.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 42c | 53.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x366a…ebeabacked No | 74c | 53.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 55c | 53.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 42c | 53.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…8adfbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…679ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4d…5ac3backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 44c | 44.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…42a2backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 61c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…ee56backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 54c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 26.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…2d3cbacked No | 52c | 22.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…9733backed No | 74c | 22.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed No | 60c | 21.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…42e1backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…b55bbacked Yes | 78c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…debcbacked Yes | 64c | 16.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Momentum win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?this page
- Will AD+PD win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?No won
- Will Imperium Europa win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.