TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

National Bank Open: Aoi Ito vs Katherine Sebov

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Katherine Sebovof Aoi Ito, Katherine Sebov
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$136,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,623 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Aoi Ito35c18,631$6,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,548.358,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Katherine Sebov65c13,855$8,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,887.3411,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Aoi Ito34c12,174$4,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,139.161,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Katherine Sebov47c7,573$3,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,013.6440748.9%199 W · 208 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked Katherine Sebov71c3,798$2,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,101.569558.9%56 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca97…49f6backed Katherine Sebov78c3,594$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.7510448.1%50 W · 54 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Aoi Ito53c3,196$1,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.881,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Aoi Ito26c2,311$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Katherine Sebov65c1,805$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.736,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Katherine Sebov47c1,795$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.3233751.9%175 W · 162 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Katherine Sebov67c1,627$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.894,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Katherine Sebov62c1,354$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.354,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Aoi Ito27c1,219$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.124452.5%128 W · 116 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ea…2f71backed Katherine Sebov77c1,168$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.0744758.8%263 W · 184 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Katherine Sebov72c1,128$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.0293740.6%380 W · 557 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Aoi Ito31c1,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Aoi Ito23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.49,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Katherine Sebov61c826.1$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.194068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Katherine Sebov41c767.88$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.053,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Katherine Sebov71c744.7$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.832,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…661abacked Aoi Ito36c722.36$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2601216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Katherine Sebov61c594.18$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.113,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Aoi Ito40c556.33$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.5335938.2%137 W · 222 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Aoi Ito37c555.37$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.331,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Aoi Ito31c375.57$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.613,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Katherine Sebov67c373.13$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.131,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Aoi Ito26c313.92$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.621,77648.6%863 W · 913 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Katherine Sebov62c303.5$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.611,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Katherine Sebov70c258.17$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.658,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Aoi Ito26c226.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb804…cd66backed Aoi Ito37c204.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7515416.2%25 W · 129 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Aoi Ito22c199.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Aoi Ito38c198.89$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5227139.1%106 W · 165 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Katherine Sebov63c193.06$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.642,85549.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L+21.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04e6…3914backed Aoi Ito59c186.96$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1934655.2%191 W · 155 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68f0…c32dbacked Aoi Ito60c165.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.534860.4%29 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Aoi Ito46c147.72$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.954,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f57…3e7abacked Katherine Sebov68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0684857.4%487 W · 361 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Katherine Sebov63c139$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.771,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2262…21a1backed Katherine Sebov62c137.73$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6776355.6%424 W · 339 L+29.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Aoi Ito43c127$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6197852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a51…1e9fbacked Katherine Sebov60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4821842.2%92 W · 126 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Aoi Ito37c119.32$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.962,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Katherine Sebov77c117$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.911,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Katherine Sebov68c115.31$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.950268.3%343 W · 159 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Katherine Sebov62c103.27$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5524858.5%145 W · 103 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Aoi Ito59c102$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.181,36543.3%591 W · 774 L-26.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Aoi Ito47c101.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4443144.8%193 W · 238 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c87…98b1backed Aoi Ito16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.82262.2%5 W · 221 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-62.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51bb…a38bbacked Katherine Sebov60c99.25$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.722567.1%151 W · 74 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Katherine Sebov41c96.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.941,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e72…d0b9backed Aoi Ito34c87.11$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2170729.1%206 W · 501 L+0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e5…e3d8backed Aoi Ito32c83.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6233550.7%170 W · 165 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Katherine Sebov69c78.98$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4853043%228 W · 302 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee4f…daa3backed Aoi Ito33c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520332.5%66 W · 137 L-12.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd32d…23b4backed Katherine Sebov78c75.48$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.619151.6%47 W · 44 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Aoi Ito20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,02554%554 W · 471 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bc1…eebebacked Aoi Ito24c73.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6810052%52 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd770…209dbacked Aoi Ito48c71.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.546552.3%34 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Katherine Sebov41c70.23$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.441,02157.8%590 W · 431 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73a…58a9backed Aoi Ito36c68.29$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.92744.4%12 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+52.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd27d…fa96backed Katherine Sebov62c64.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5713557.8%78 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed Aoi Ito34c62.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.421,86144.4%827 W · 1,034 L-15.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Katherine Sebov68c61.41$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.651,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x323e…1ddabacked Katherine Sebov41c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.763537.6%239 W · 396 L+20.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Katherine Sebov66c57.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8739648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf49…b4a5backed Aoi Ito39c56.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2254955.2%303 W · 246 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab41…c453backed Katherine Sebov59c55.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7233062.7%207 W · 123 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fd9…039bbacked Aoi Ito27c55.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,00838.3%386 W · 622 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Aoi Ito25c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1367838.3%260 W · 418 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Aoi Ito44c50.4$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.121,88048.5%912 W · 968 L+8.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Aoi Ito35c44.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.371,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ad…34cebacked Aoi Ito26c42.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1144051.6%227 W · 213 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c22…0a8cbacked Aoi Ito40c39.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8146440.5%188 W · 276 L-36.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x00c5…b5e9backed Katherine Sebov41c38.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4723162.8%145 W · 86 L+0.6wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df0…1376backed Aoi Ito53c37.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010648.1%51 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Aoi Ito31c36.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.391,76752.1%920 W · 847 L-2.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Aoi Ito58c34.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.972,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Katherine Sebov65c32.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2235357.2%202 W · 151 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca76…d365backed Katherine Sebov80c32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.46298.4%61 W · 1 L+13.4wins+0.22per pick77cpaid+28.3%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4432…1a32backed Katherine Sebov80c32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.415079.3%119 W · 31 L+17.1wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+10.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5331…3672backed Katherine Sebov41c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.731347.6%149 W · 164 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…5cd4backed Aoi Ito41c28.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6414732.7%48 W · 99 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4655…0d73backed Katherine Sebov72c27.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.815048%24 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Aoi Ito59c27.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.332,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Katherine Sebov73c26.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.076,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac71…b3eabacked Aoi Ito54c25.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1415748.4%76 W · 81 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x589f…2fe4backed Katherine Sebov78c24.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.351735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a09…8cdbbacked Katherine Sebov62c24.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.133458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24f…7131backed Katherine Sebov62c24.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.131752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a8…5aedbacked Katherine Sebov64c23.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.56771.6%48 W · 19 L+10.5wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+33%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbf7b…013bbacked Aoi Ito50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108660.5%52 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Katherine Sebov74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.151,17552.9%622 W · 553 L+2.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x624b…d3dbbacked Aoi Ito54c19.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.349950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e26…915cbacked Katherine Sebov63c18.97$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.022653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f17…0724backed Katherine Sebov75c17.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.370254.4%382 W · 320 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed Katherine Sebov69c17.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.379450%47 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf504…0111backed Katherine Sebov63c16.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251,10256.5%623 W · 479 L+52.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7e1…b1aebacked Katherine Sebov62c16.55$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2911750.4%59 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.