TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: DRX vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DRXof DRX, DetonatioN FocusMe
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed DRX75c3,500$2,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.3352155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed DetonatioN FocusMe26c2,500$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.9841734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed DRX60c1,776$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.7122344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked DRX75c1,702$1,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.646759.7%40 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed DetonatioN FocusMe19c1,700$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5532245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed DetonatioN FocusMe25c1,445$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.2525554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x060d…d746backed DRX76c1,429$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.891850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed DetonatioN FocusMe29c1,358$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.2815147%71 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec7f…ab9ebacked DetonatioN FocusMe48c1,294$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.522556%14 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f90…8ed1backed DetonatioN FocusMe17c1,190$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.17812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-81.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed DRX76c1,117$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.1333346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed DetonatioN FocusMe40c1,002$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.161,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0698…b91dbacked DetonatioN FocusMe51c957.47$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.3610346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked DetonatioN FocusMe29c938.24$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2425444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed DRX76c842.88$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.556357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked DRX60c825.01$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3412856.3%72 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed DetonatioN FocusMe24c685$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.45343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked DRX69c581.71$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.81,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8037…04fabacked DetonatioN FocusMe28c533.54$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.664843.8%21 W · 27 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0c…da03backed DRX65c503.34$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.911738.5%45 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked DetonatioN FocusMe26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304818.8%9 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked DetonatioN FocusMe26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13086747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked DRX74c462.78$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.166442.2%27 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed DetonatioN FocusMe51c414.94$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9632462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed DRX74c413.47$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.54040%16 W · 24 L-8.4wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-39.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked DetonatioN FocusMe30c369.91$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.221,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed DRX56c338.99$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.1618457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed DRX67c330$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3722455.4%124 W · 100 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked DRX61c308.05$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.7530652.3%160 W · 146 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6826…dd78backed DRX67c294.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.94837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked DetonatioN FocusMe24c292.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8950944.6%227 W · 282 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked DRX49c280$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.836648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked DetonatioN FocusMe52c274.08$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.5228955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed DetonatioN FocusMe25c269.59$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.234356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed DRX71c262.02$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6954342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed DRX78c256.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3319847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed DetonatioN FocusMe31c220.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.247241.7%30 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed DetonatioN FocusMe33c215.45$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9533838.5%130 W · 208 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed DetonatioN FocusMe25c206.09$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7460022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked DetonatioN FocusMe25c206$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3724551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked DetonatioN FocusMe31c202.35$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5877744%342 W · 435 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1cc…3bf0backed DRX75c200.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2412755.9%71 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked DRX65c181.34$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed DRX46c180.12$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.515358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed DetonatioN FocusMe42c176.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5814850.7%75 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked DetonatioN FocusMe28c168.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2514552.4%76 W · 69 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…4eecbacked DRX60c167.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3417642.6%75 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed DRX73c164.19$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3363447.9%304 W · 330 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85a9…4e21backed DRX61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.934755.3%26 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3416…adaabacked DetonatioN FocusMe31c160.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0181…9b5fbacked DetonatioN FocusMe21c149.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3627850%139 W · 139 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a2e…3ceabacked DetonatioN FocusMe29c145.16$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.224951%25 W · 24 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked DRX58c142.46$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.144233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x339b…0ceabacked DRX72c139.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.47580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed DetonatioN FocusMe50c139.03$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0349255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed DRX80c138.33$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.261,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed DetonatioN FocusMe26c135.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3523055.7%128 W · 102 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked DetonatioN FocusMe30c133$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6555637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ce…0f13backed DetonatioN FocusMe28c129.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.764119.5%8 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked DetonatioN FocusMe28c125$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7552050%260 W · 260 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked DetonatioN FocusMe35c125$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.955348.3%267 W · 286 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed DetonatioN FocusMe28c125$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7579650%398 W · 398 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed DetonatioN FocusMe30c123$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1714345.5%65 W · 78 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed DetonatioN FocusMe32c121.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9323732.9%78 W · 159 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked DetonatioN FocusMe33c120.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4025843%111 W · 147 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8c…500abacked DetonatioN FocusMe27c115.37$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.152347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b3…4a99backed DetonatioN FocusMe23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253036.7%11 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed DetonatioN FocusMe31c105.7$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.171,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed DetonatioN FocusMe27c105.6$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4321641.7%90 W · 126 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…202abacked DRX74c105.38$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.45749.1%28 W · 29 L-8.6wins-0.15per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe803…b60ebacked DRX74c104.31$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1219551.3%100 W · 95 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed DetonatioN FocusMe48c102.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5139646%182 W · 214 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x377a…7dc7backed DRX66c101.59$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed DetonatioN FocusMe43c101.53$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2614254.9%78 W · 64 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aff…9200backed DetonatioN FocusMe23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239139.6%36 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed DetonatioN FocusMe25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed DetonatioN FocusMe25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255147.1%24 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked DRX74c99.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9938950.6%197 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed DetonatioN FocusMe28c97.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2923733.8%80 W · 157 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked DetonatioN FocusMe41c94.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.325141.4%104 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed DetonatioN FocusMe33c92.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2135331.2%110 W · 243 L-29.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-38.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked DetonatioN FocusMe31c87.15$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4390733.1%300 W · 607 L-89.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-40.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc0ca…7d49backed DetonatioN FocusMe58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked DetonatioN FocusMe20c86.03$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0188844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed DetonatioN FocusMe32c86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9499846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0da…749bbacked DRX59c83$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2210628.3%30 W · 76 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed DRX68c81.51$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0866650.8%338 W · 328 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b6…1903backed DRX74c81.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0826354.4%143 W · 120 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed DetonatioN FocusMe29c76.09$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2693049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed DRX62c72.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7365347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed DetonatioN FocusMe26c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.211637.9%44 W · 72 L-15.5wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd4bc…6c1bbacked DRX74c69.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.951662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked DRX73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.493345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked DRX54c68.07$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1123644.5%105 W · 131 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b7…7491backed DetonatioN FocusMe26c67.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6713848.6%67 W · 71 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92df…7a08backed DRX60c66.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8810151.5%52 W · 49 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3d…1f52backed DRX74c66.49$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.292842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-28.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked DetonatioN FocusMe29c65.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1157151%291 W · 280 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked DRX76c64.63$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.291,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35ae…b929backed DetonatioN FocusMe47c64.26$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014443.1%62 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.