TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Felix Gill

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Felix Gillof Alex Molcan, Felix Gill
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Alex Molcan77c10,000$7,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,699.9827063.7%172 W · 98 L-0.8wins0.00per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288c…3641backed Felix Gill20c5,097$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,096.799430.9%29 W · 65 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Alex Molcan71c2,553$1,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,810.4494068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Felix Gill21c2,159$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.854,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Alex Molcan63c2,109$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.223,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Alex Molcan57c2,065$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.282,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ce…570abacked Alex Molcan61c1,871$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.463650%18 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Alex Molcan44c1,821$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.1329241.8%122 W · 170 L+0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf3…e802backed Felix Gill14c1,749$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.847728.1%134 W · 343 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Felix Gill12c1,701$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.791,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Alex Molcan57c1,662$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.324,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4340…363dbacked Alex Molcan37c1,574$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57618445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Felix Gill16c1,398$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.0820412.7%26 W · 178 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ae…c975backed Felix Gill23c1,304$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.3521537.2%80 W · 135 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x097c…5cdebacked Alex Molcan52c1,176$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6108447.6%40 W · 44 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Alex Molcan76c1,089$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.6641060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…7a1bbacked Felix Gill12c1,003$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.57512%9 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Felix Gill21c1,000$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79085634.2%293 W · 563 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Felix Gill30c941.57$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.248,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Alex Molcan71c937.76$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.3711,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Alex Molcan79c920.57$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.524,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Alex Molcan23c920.22$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.156827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Alex Molcan54c913.21$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.4692145.2%416 W · 505 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Felix Gill16c843.21$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.7435932.6%117 W · 242 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…ba42backed Alex Molcan58c763.1$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.61844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x58f9…40cfbacked Felix Gill22c679.32$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.87825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Alex Molcan77c604.98$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.291,83153%971 W · 860 L-45.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Felix Gill31c539.43$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.025,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked Alex Molcan48c516.98$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.52552%13 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Alex Molcan49c512.11$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501,02650%513 W · 513 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Felix Gill39c462$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.4268026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Felix Gill44c454.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5439238.8%152 W · 240 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Felix Gill22c437.47$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.2242341.4%175 W · 248 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Alex Molcan56c397.58$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7243950.8%223 W · 216 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Felix Gill40c394.85$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.822,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1258…0c15backed Felix Gill8c357.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.222010%2 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick14cpaid+5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Alex Molcan57c347.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Alex Molcan32c330.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9336757.8%212 W · 155 L+26.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Felix Gill21c326.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.4667838.3%260 W · 418 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Felix Gill41c321.95$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.4960641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Felix Gill22c311.79$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.191,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Felix Gill18c291$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.3581457%464 W · 350 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Felix Gill23c272.21$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.67,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Alex Molcan40c262.12$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3237645.7%172 W · 204 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Alex Molcan77c259.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20059165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Felix Gill12c245$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.9348214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Felix Gill19c231$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1118850%94 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3647…5205backed Felix Gill8c230$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+321.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Alex Molcan55c225.44$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9916746.1%77 W · 90 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Felix Gill31c222.15$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.318,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Alex Molcan53c207.7$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11026847%126 W · 142 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Alex Molcan48c206.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10081933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf92f…1a35backed Felix Gill20c206.67$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.8316018.1%29 W · 131 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Felix Gill22c205.98$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.6799249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Alex Molcan47c201.33$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9452341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Alex Molcan65c201.1$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.62,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfda…eb15backed Alex Molcan25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506437.5%24 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+47.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Alex Molcan48c199.91$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.361,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Alex Molcan76c196$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.835187.7%308 W · 43 L+66.4wins+0.19per pick69cpaid+29.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Alex Molcan78c192.31$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15084963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Alex Molcan78c192.3$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.992,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Alex Molcan20c190.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.396,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Felix Gill20c188$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.2285449.6%424 W · 430 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Felix Gill33c185.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.646,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Felix Gill38c183.3$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.894,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2849…3d49backed Alex Molcan52c165$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5823865.5%156 W · 82 L+31.3wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4a67…f416backed Felix Gill11c156.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.461612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Felix Gill18c145$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4295846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b35…bfa7backed Felix Gill79c139.19$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1928265.6%185 W · 97 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Felix Gill73c136.65$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1291880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x79d0…4dffbacked Felix Gill22c134.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0531220.5%64 W · 248 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7072…abc7backed Felix Gill30c130.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.271250%6 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+53.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0527…a978backed Alex Molcan78c128.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002065%13 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Felix Gill23c125.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.333,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…eda7backed Felix Gill44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6441846.2%193 W · 225 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Felix Gill22c109.09$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.095,26128.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L-19.4wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Alex Molcan47c107.49$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9548235.9%173 W · 309 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Alex Molcan44c107.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.452152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Alex Molcan48c105$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.671,35443.9%595 W · 759 L-62.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed Alex Molcan78c102.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8084968.4%581 W · 268 L+25.9wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Felix Gill31c101.11$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0934847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Alex Molcan60c91.42$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.864,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Felix Gill13c90$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7579052.9%418 W · 372 L+24.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Alex Molcan58c86.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6794…0a8bbacked Felix Gill30c84.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4313016.9%22 W · 108 L-9.7wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Felix Gill26c78.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.392,08544.5%928 W · 1,157 L-51.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Felix Gill38c78.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8891755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2920…a1d3backed Alex Molcan56c71.52$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b75…409ebacked Felix Gill19c65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.86352.4%33 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Alex Molcan70c64.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4558750.4%296 W · 291 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc260…fcf0backed Felix Gill33c64.39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.891346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Alex Molcan71c64.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3889663.7%571 W · 325 L+63.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee0a…36d8backed Alex Molcan78c64.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038262.3%238 W · 144 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Felix Gill56c64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.172,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Felix Gill39c63.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.61,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Felix Gill40c59.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2532240.7%131 W · 191 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Felix Gill27c55.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8597141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed Alex Molcan78c51.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4088560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Felix Gill22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3952750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Felix Gill39c49.97$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6892138.4%354 W · 567 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.