TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

WNBA · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Storm (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seattle Stormof Seattle Storm, Toronto Tempo
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,764
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$94,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,764 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa084…bb99backed Seattle Storm38c14,922$5,744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,178.352458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+25.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Toronto Tempo50c7,900$3,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,953.9330154.8%165 W · 136 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Tempo49c7,882$3,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,823.331,02547.8%490 W · 535 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Toronto Tempo51c7,602$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,877.154632.6%15 W · 31 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm49c7,577$3,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,861.511,80351.8%934 W · 869 L+56.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Storm51c5,362$2,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,608.3851547.2%243 W · 272 L-2.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ae…69e9backed Seattle Storm50c5,212$2,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6062100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x282f…7c4ebacked Seattle Storm50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Toronto Tempo51c4,914$2,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,506.0228148.8%137 W · 144 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Tempo61c4,154$2,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,524.73850%19 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Storm49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04087148.2%420 W · 451 L+4.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Tempo62c3,135$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.726447%124 W · 140 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Seattle Storm49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53015049.3%74 W · 76 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2627…fa13backed Seattle Storm49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.98580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+57.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked Toronto Tempo50c2,512$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Tempo53c2,357$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.4791349.3%450 W · 463 L+4.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Toronto Tempo50c2,166$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0912532%8 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Seattle Storm50c2,097$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.440440.6%164 W · 240 L-15.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6387…95dcbacked Toronto Tempo50c1,961$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.391883.3%15 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.30per pick54cpaid+54.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xf41e…b80fbacked Toronto Tempo38c1,926$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$738.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb39b…9826backed Seattle Storm50c1,660$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8302638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Toronto Tempo62c1,575$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.815546.5%72 W · 83 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…4f02backed Toronto Tempo51c1,569$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc48c…1548backed Seattle Storm47c1,386$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+111.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Toronto Tempo68c1,304$892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.662458.3%14 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Tempo50c1,203$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.6433049.7%164 W · 166 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Seattle Storm52c1,084$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.3257455.2%317 W · 257 L+27.9wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Toronto Tempo60c1,057$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.443658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4e2…0f82backed Seattle Storm51c1,020$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.614459.1%26 W · 18 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe84a…5baabacked Seattle Storm28c899.99$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+213.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Toronto Tempo63c884.01$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.4832648.5%158 W · 168 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Toronto Tempo62c849.35$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.924855.6%138 W · 110 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Toronto Tempo49c841.18$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.1841451%211 W · 203 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed Toronto Tempo50c766$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3834862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Seattle Storm52c737.04$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.7839545.8%181 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Toronto Tempo56c712.42$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.7967051.5%345 W · 325 L+2.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Seattle Storm49c700$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35718346.4%85 W · 98 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Seattle Storm51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29415142.4%64 W · 87 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c1b…85c8backed Toronto Tempo60c591.4$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.817251.2%88 W · 84 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fd…442fbacked Toronto Tempo64c495.16$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.36per pick52cpaid-70.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Tempo53c405.86$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.3114555.2%80 W · 65 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d42…eb8ebacked Seattle Storm51c394.94$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.944143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Toronto Tempo52c386.05$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.75616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-67.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Toronto Tempo57c359.85$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.8441846.9%196 W · 222 L+2.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Tempo60c339.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4233549.3%165 W · 170 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Toronto Tempo12c311.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7235126.2%92 W · 259 L-21.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Storm47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15985658.4%500 W · 356 L+70.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed Toronto Tempo62c300$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1863345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4272…4a17backed Toronto Tempo51c288.53$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.153046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Tempo50c223.61$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.894448.3%456 W · 488 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Toronto Tempo46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008428.6%24 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Toronto Tempo50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Seattle Storm48c198.96$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.2737653.7%202 W · 174 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x840b…345fbacked Seattle Storm50c198.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.12887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.42per pick46cpaid+84%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Tempo55c191.69$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5935454.2%192 W · 162 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Seattle Storm40c191$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.652846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Toronto Tempo50c163$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.56940.6%28 W · 41 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d5a…a0bebacked Toronto Tempo50c156.86$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fd4…de15backed Seattle Storm52c156.09$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.543132.3%10 W · 21 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-36.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Seattle Storm52c155.76$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.18785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+32.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…bd29backed Toronto Tempo51c150.17$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.28450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfe…9483backed Seattle Storm45c149.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.52347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Seattle Storm49c128$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.289841.8%41 W · 57 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Toronto Tempo61c124.27$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.2911354%61 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Seattle Storm49c119.67$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0342947.1%202 W · 227 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Tempo47c111.4$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3680348.7%391 W · 412 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Seattle Storm54c108.36$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.883969.2%27 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Seattle Storm52c107.14$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0114661.6%90 W · 56 L+15.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Toronto Tempo46c106.76$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.112626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-40.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Toronto Tempo51c101.88$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.968536.5%31 W · 54 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Seattle Storm52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488947.2%42 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Toronto Tempo48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4830548.9%149 W · 156 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8537…b98bbacked Seattle Storm53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475552.7%29 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked Seattle Storm51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Toronto Tempo47c99.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3735140.2%141 W · 210 L-19.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Tempo67c80.75$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9939750.1%199 W · 198 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Seattle Storm51c76.33$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.43050%15 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Toronto Tempo44c75.16$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.031546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc547…c570backed Toronto Tempo42c75.13$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3313338.3%51 W · 82 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Storm61c71.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9924952.6%131 W · 118 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked Toronto Tempo46c64.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.593357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Seattle Storm51c56.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4920641.3%85 W · 121 L-16.0wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Toronto Tempo55c55.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3125846.9%121 W · 137 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Seattle Storm54c54.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.943666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Seattle Storm54c54.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.943369.7%23 W · 10 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+23.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Toronto Tempo64c46.46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5326746.4%124 W · 143 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Tempo38c44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7238050.5%192 W · 188 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bcd…c00fbacked Toronto Tempo47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-38.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Seattle Storm54c42.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4114052.1%73 W · 67 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x193a…2dfabacked Seattle Storm49c41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.921346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7e9…99e6backed Seattle Storm52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Toronto Tempo55c36.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1619950.3%100 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9491…5eabbacked Seattle Storm53c36.36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.09580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+48.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Toronto Tempo58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023867.2%160 W · 78 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Tempo62c31.1$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.284242.9%18 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe06f…f289backed Seattle Storm50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Seattle Storm50c29.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.812643.7%55 W · 71 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03f8…99d0backed Seattle Storm52c28.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.492948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fc2…40e7backed Toronto Tempo73c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x191f…5319backed Toronto Tempo74c27.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.