Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0174a32ce50b11c793acc6a643e1d583c99fa52016a319eab4052f9a59f4eb18

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $196,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $172,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $196,415 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5cae…a00abacked Yes	13c	21,842$2,814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,813.82	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Yes	10c	12,379$1,234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,233.67	108	33.3%36 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe734…4f0cbacked Yes	10c	11,518$1,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,151.81	83	25.3%21 W · 62 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	7,873$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.01	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…76b9backed Yes	2c	5,776$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	5,525$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.11	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	9c	5,022$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.58	119	45.4%54 W · 65 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd859…c7c2backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Yes	10c	5,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	864	52.7%455 W · 409 L	+26.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	4c	4,703$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.1	120	25%30 W · 90 L	-5.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes	2c	4,445$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.35	350	33.7%118 W · 232 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	15c	4,120$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf256…9728backed Yes	11c	4,036$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	2c	3,837$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.61	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes	10c	2,864$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.68	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes	11c	2,573$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283	98	38.8%38 W · 60 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c1…473ebacked Yes	12c	2,394$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.63	513	15.6%80 W · 433 L	+4.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,266$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.39	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes	8c	2,001$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.04	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes	10c	1,983$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.89	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	1,826$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	609	8.4%51 W · 558 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	6c	1,692$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.84	269	40.9%110 W · 159 L	+7.8wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes	9c	1,400$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.03	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-5.4wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x35b2…f329backed Yes	11c	1,288$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.29	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	41cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2936…7be9backed Yes	7c	1,198$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.1	95	16.8%16 W · 79 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae84…e1debacked Yes	1c	1,154$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	9c	1,112$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	130	11.5%15 W · 115 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	10c	1,057$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.75	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a67…df6fbacked Yes	13c	1,027$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.48	169	27.8%47 W · 122 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-31%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ee…9bdcbacked Yes	15c	1,015$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.19	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	8c	945.89$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.33	120	46.7%56 W · 64 L	-11.5wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5026…dde1backed Yes	11c	927.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	79	38%30 W · 49 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd74c…e70bbacked Yes	11c	908.98$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-6.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a6f…72f2backed Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	2c	824.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.48	2,453	34.7%850 W · 1,603 L	+84.3wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	782.98$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.74	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d67…b838backed Yes	2c	781.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf886…34bcbacked Yes	7c	722.13$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.41	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed Yes	8c	700$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	464	64.9%301 W · 163 L	+26.6wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Yes	9c	700$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	8c	626.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.64	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd29d…b038backed Yes	10c	599.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-6.2wins	-0.16per pick	21cpaid	-92.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	4c	598.74$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.85	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes	9c	500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	173	40.5%70 W · 103 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes	10c	499.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	200	36%72 W · 128 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40de…65d6backed Yes	12c	457.58$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0121…f722backed Yes	13c	434.91$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.86	236	44.9%106 W · 130 L	+11.7wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8825…9c18backed Yes	12c	416.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes	8c	411.3$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	254	43.7%111 W · 143 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes	12c	360.75$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.29	141	30.5%43 W · 98 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes	9c	349.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes	10c	330$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.78	2,603	37.8%984 W · 1,619 L	-40.7wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a9a…72e7backed Yes	10c	271.91$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.12	46	28.3%13 W · 33 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30a0…250fbacked Yes	9c	265.03$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	10cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Yes	9c	265$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	245	37.1%91 W · 154 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ee…0ad8backed Yes	8c	247.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes	8c	245.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	130	44.6%58 W · 72 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked Yes	11c	230.27$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.98	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8525…46d6backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	46	28.3%13 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x587b…e023backed Yes	9c	222$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x883b…7399backed Yes	6c	208$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	10c	200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45f5…6fffbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	240	43.3%104 W · 136 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes	10c	192.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	287	31%89 W · 198 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04cc…6796backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18ce…5d26backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes	11c	162$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	189	11.1%21 W · 168 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafeb…b487backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	87.5%7 W · 1 L	+3.8wins	+0.48per pick	40cpaid	+170.4%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xdf79…dfb4backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x710f…9f2ebacked Yes	11c	136.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	-5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes	10c	135$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	132	42.4%56 W · 76 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39e5…3bc7backed Yes	12c	133.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	34	2.9%1 W · 33 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	13cpaid	-90.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	12c	130.3$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes	10c	126.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	285	47.7%136 W · 149 L	-12.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb326…d18bbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f88…c9c5backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f1f…0b36backed Yes	12c	98.57$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	68	36.8%25 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5161…3c38backed Yes	14c	96.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+15%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb8…c74dbacked Yes	12c	95.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	47	23.4%11 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f2…2512backed Yes	11c	90.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?this page
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes won
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event