TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alliance Guardiansof Dynamo Esports, Alliance Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$187,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8660…93edbacked Dynamo Esports49c50,915$24,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,925.9618148.1%87 W · 94 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Dynamo Esports61c25,094$15,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,338.7152455.2%289 W · 235 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Dynamo Esports5c14,463$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.1319046.3%88 W · 102 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Alliance Guardians32c11,111$3,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,555.4833942.2%143 W · 196 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…e601backed Alliance Guardians51c10,188$5,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,008.262100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6e…b0e0backed Alliance Guardians47c7,000$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7101100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Dynamo Esports36c5,602$2,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.841,28132.1%411 W · 870 L-67.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Alliance Guardians53c4,961$2,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.096750.7%34 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42dd…5d2bbacked Alliance Guardians52c4,483$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.64537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Alliance Guardians45c4,423$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.271,42251.3%729 W · 693 L+49.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Alliance Guardians54c4,413$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.915556.4%31 W · 24 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Alliance Guardians39c3,959$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,414.015952.5%31 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c8…84a6backed Dynamo Esports55c2,964$1,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.123151.9%120 W · 111 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb209…b744backed Alliance Guardians36c2,515$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.597533.3%25 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Alliance Guardians55c2,084$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.643339.4%13 W · 20 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-36%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae10…09e3backed Alliance Guardians52c2,021$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.75955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed Alliance Guardians46c1,957$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.521637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Dynamo Esports14c1,884$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4114533.8%49 W · 96 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Dynamo Esports42c1,777$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.377929.5%230 W · 549 L-72.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked Alliance Guardians53c1,765$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.898348.2%40 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed Alliance Guardians60c1,640$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.092360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa2…6df9backed Alliance Guardians50c1,607$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.323240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95a9…4352backed Alliance Guardians50c1,607$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.462050%10 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Dynamo Esports5c1,509$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.811,31243.8%575 W · 737 L-44.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Dynamo Esports40c1,501$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.439142.5%166 W · 225 L+18.9wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Alliance Guardians54c1,500$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6951752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Dynamo Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15521.9%1 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Dynamo Esports1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15790%0 W · 79 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Dynamo Esports37c1,438$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.4889344.3%396 W · 497 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Alliance Guardians41c1,346$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.167342.5%31 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Alliance Guardians45c1,333$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed Alliance Guardians48c1,296$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.115451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…dc29backed Alliance Guardians51c1,253$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.0919337.8%73 W · 120 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked Alliance Guardians56c1,228$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.327550.7%38 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa3…ff46backed Alliance Guardians67c1,181$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick36cpaid+154%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x88b0…f8d8backed Alliance Guardians37c1,092$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.385341.5%22 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d70…fdd9backed Dynamo Esports45c1,012$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.4745250%226 W · 226 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Alliance Guardians53c1,008$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.1215843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Alliance Guardians51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed Dynamo Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick2cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Alliance Guardians53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4702347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed Alliance Guardians53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4702356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Dynamo Esports1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10701.4%1 W · 69 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd443…c069backed Alliance Guardians53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+21.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Dynamo Esports3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305831%18 W · 40 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b24…ba5cbacked Alliance Guardians51c955.6$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+54.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcef…fd7fbacked Alliance Guardians46c817$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.33834.2%13 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Alliance Guardians53c800$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38086747.5%412 W · 455 L-2.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8a…76a2backed Alliance Guardians53c786.09$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.092147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbe8…1141backed Alliance Guardians48c737.5$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Dynamo Esports6c720.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.551,36538.9%531 W · 834 L-60.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked Alliance Guardians49c691.43$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.081936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Alliance Guardians50c689.98$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.526647%31 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Alliance Guardians47c685.88$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.528646.5%40 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d1f…6465backed Alliance Guardians47c660.6$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+69.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Alliance Guardians35c632$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.099744.3%43 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87fe…3cbebacked Alliance Guardians51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2941323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-55.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Dynamo Esports39c572.96$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.554641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0e3…c760backed Alliance Guardians50c566.08$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.082528%7 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-39.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Alliance Guardians55c551$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.954944.9%22 W · 27 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked Alliance Guardians33c546.13$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.329142.9%39 W · 52 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24dc…25abbacked Alliance Guardians55c543.64$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.642437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f18…1566backed Alliance Guardians37c538.99$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Dynamo Esports48c516$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.272846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Alliance Guardians50c512.54$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.5711843.2%51 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3499…60b5backed Alliance Guardians55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf035…052abacked Alliance Guardians55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c2…5b5fbacked Alliance Guardians55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x242c…286dbacked Alliance Guardians51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked Alliance Guardians55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2255328.3%15 W · 38 L-9.3wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-45.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa2db…a60dbacked Alliance Guardians55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+34.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Alliance Guardians55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2258334.9%29 W · 54 L-9.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked Alliance Guardians51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2451643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef5…3881backed Alliance Guardians55c500$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea0…9838backed Alliance Guardians51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+116.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Dynamo Esports50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25036648.4%177 W · 189 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Alliance Guardians52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2403930.8%12 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Alliance Guardians54c499.99$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2305149%25 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed Alliance Guardians50c495.62$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.343444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa487…9439backed Alliance Guardians50c483.56$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.784736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab87…117ebacked Alliance Guardians48c473.73$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.372152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed Dynamo Esports35c472.92$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.722556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Dynamo Esports37c472.06$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9451849.6%257 W · 261 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aa4…236cbacked Alliance Guardians45c465.19$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.1810951.4%56 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Alliance Guardians53c453.91$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.0110237.3%38 W · 64 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked Alliance Guardians55c446.06$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.733655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aaa…e611backed Alliance Guardians34c431.65$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3449…4030backed Alliance Guardians55c431.56$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.25738.6%22 W · 35 L-5.1wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed Alliance Guardians46c430$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.23545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Alliance Guardians53c429.51$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.3823447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcef5…e9acbacked Alliance Guardians55c426.69$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.06475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+40.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd95d…2ab5backed Alliance Guardians46c423.75$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.075147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9718…ffd8backed Dynamo Esports59c423.73$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe43…8f09backed Alliance Guardians50c403.1$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.55862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Alliance Guardians49c402.63$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.3454542.2%230 W · 315 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Alliance Guardians71c400.3$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.254856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7d8…a577backed Alliance Guardians48c392$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.81250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Alliance Guardians47c391.49$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.728839.8%35 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked Alliance Guardians46c385.52$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x206c…2b8dbacked Alliance Guardians51c369$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.812250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.