TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

NBA Summer League: Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Toronto Raptorsof Indiana Pacers, Toronto Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$143,544
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,544 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x060f…5a9dbacked Indiana Pacers64c29,384$18,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,849.97742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Toronto Raptors40c23,730$9,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,249.342842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Toronto Raptors45c10,689$4,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,927.3413442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Indiana Pacers42c10,292$4,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,309.343452.9%18 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+23.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Indiana Pacers43c8,690$3,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,754.5837355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Indiana Pacers48c6,009$2,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,884.5426753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Toronto Raptors55c3,863$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.3110761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Indiana Pacers53c2,626$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.523339.4%13 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-37.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Toronto Raptors56c2,520$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.622753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Toronto Raptors45c2,338$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.143756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Toronto Raptors56c1,993$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.216437.5%24 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Toronto Raptors54c1,812$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.0911145.9%51 W · 60 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd3…0e24backed Toronto Raptors59c1,659$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.072147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Toronto Raptors51c1,623$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.751,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Indiana Pacers1c1,096$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.523630.1%71 W · 165 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-28.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Raptors58c1,076$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.8225954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Indiana Pacers56c1,050$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.4868838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Toronto Raptors56c932.78$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.4819548.2%94 W · 101 L+12.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09da…56ffbacked Indiana Pacers43c906.56$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3942231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Toronto Raptors58c857.95$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5220…96ddbacked Toronto Raptors58c849.93$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Indiana Pacers55c845.24$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Indiana Pacers28c843.64$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.3912846.9%60 W · 68 L+13.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+29.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Raptors58c800.54$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.128,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a5…4a10backed Toronto Raptors59c783.65$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.79616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-71.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Toronto Raptors60c780$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31221653.7%116 W · 100 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x767a…8ac5backed Indiana Pacers61c652.56$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.065058%29 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Raptors61c638.65$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.238654.7%47 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1852…cb4ebacked Indiana Pacers49c629.56$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3118230.5%25 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Indiana Pacers2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Raptors57c575.22$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.5452150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Toronto Raptors64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1805844.8%26 W · 32 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23d1…52c5backed Toronto Raptors59c451.65$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.651266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Toronto Raptors58c443.91$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.8927245.6%124 W · 148 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Toronto Raptors57c436.18$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.276,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Toronto Raptors60c413.85$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.8562652.2%327 W · 299 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8037…04fabacked Indiana Pacers45c413.25$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Indiana Pacers42c408.62$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.6293148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5bd…226cbacked Indiana Pacers13c400$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed Toronto Raptors57c400$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17125146.2%116 W · 135 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Indiana Pacers46c389.69$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.252339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Toronto Raptors64c379.75$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.711,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed Toronto Raptors53c331.37$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1314042.9%60 W · 80 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Toronto Raptors54c329.61$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.6235546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf20c…f4c7backed Toronto Raptors58c322.31$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Toronto Raptors40c300$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.1514357.3%82 W · 61 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5d3…6b98backed Toronto Raptors57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Toronto Raptors58c280.31$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.331741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-25.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Toronto Raptors65c277.79$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.275076%38 W · 12 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+21.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xfaf6…dd05backed Toronto Raptors57c263.16$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a62…fc1abacked Indiana Pacers38c261.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Toronto Raptors57c257.95$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.663764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+48.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Toronto Raptors65c250.02$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.1424937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Toronto Raptors58c248.53$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.184663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Toronto Raptors53c248.15$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.083,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Toronto Raptors64c242.4$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.156636.4%24 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Toronto Raptors55c240.03$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.0150346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked Indiana Pacers37c240$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.774934.7%17 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d4…1ffcbacked Indiana Pacers30c235.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.061060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+58.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a90…7bf8backed Toronto Raptors53c235.07$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.489260.9%56 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9abb…3f96backed Indiana Pacers59c227.49$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.244052.5%21 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick63cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Indiana Pacers35c218.59$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.662835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Toronto Raptors64c216.48$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.292781.5%22 W · 5 L+5.9wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+31.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Indiana Pacers15c216$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.58825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Toronto Raptors59c202.37$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3730945.3%140 W · 169 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa68…ba5dbacked Indiana Pacers18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1d…2b19backed Indiana Pacers21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf990…88bcbacked Indiana Pacers40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Toronto Raptors61c199.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7824955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Indiana Pacers43c188.01$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8027145.4%123 W · 148 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Toronto Raptors54c180.96$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7252053.3%277 W · 243 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Toronto Raptors66c175$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9911160.4%67 W · 44 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Indiana Pacers45c173.66$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1512541.6%52 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Toronto Raptors64c162.85$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.829851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Indiana Pacers45c154.92$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.04683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+83.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf903…de2fbacked Indiana Pacers27c149.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.06825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8443…2988backed Toronto Raptors71c148.82$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.431675%12 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x59cb…57d1backed Indiana Pacers37c148.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Indiana Pacers30c144.09$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2331249.4%154 W · 158 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f79…d807backed Toronto Raptors60c137.31$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.241040%4 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-38.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x701c…b953backed Indiana Pacers9c121.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.141136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2af9…620ebacked Indiana Pacers70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Toronto Raptors55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+104.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Toronto Raptors59c86.66$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.662356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf202…9ea8backed Indiana Pacers65c86$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.761050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Toronto Raptors56c82$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.082250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Raptors58c81.2$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.133356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Toronto Raptors58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.813458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8100…1d33backed Indiana Pacers25c79.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Toronto Raptors51c78.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7359743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Raptors55c76$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.22,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06f…cbadbacked Toronto Raptors60c74.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.713773%27 W · 10 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0ec1…b7b3backed Indiana Pacers47c72.86$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9da…beb6backed Toronto Raptors61c71.6$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1e…4754backed Toronto Raptors57c68.91$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.862245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Indiana Pacers38c66.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.461,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01d7…5fd2backed Indiana Pacers79c63.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505964.4%38 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3036…15c2backed Toronto Raptors41c61.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.17050%35 W · 35 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+54.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Indiana Pacers40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2436749.6%182 W · 185 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Indiana Pacers75c59.43$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.734136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.