Us Politics · resolved market
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11ee1b9593922df2662edcc38e9eb8f7428fb8d1b443ac3d0ae971b6cfc92051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 75c | 8,075$6,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,038.02 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 6c | 6,338$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,967.09 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 5,263$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 7c | 3,322$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,088.23 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 31c | 2,894$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…f328backed Yes | 16c | 2,583$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 71c | 2,116$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.85 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 1,818$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.95 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 2c | 1,696$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 60c | 1,683$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.48 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7a…5015backed Yes | 4c | 1,479$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +130.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 17c | 1,468$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.33 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 14c | 1,281$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.63 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 5c | 1,250$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.41 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,196$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.29 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 8c | 1,193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +138.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 53c | 1,128$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.96 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +10.2wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 24c | 1,100$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.3 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc88…9ba3backed Yes | 10c | 1,022$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +921.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 13c | 977.16$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.27 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…ce37backed Yes | 69c | 975.34$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 33c | 961.23$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.02 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…09f2backed Yes | 17c | 896.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.67 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 12c | 862$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…1b45backed No | 45c | 709$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 15c | 700$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 18c | 674.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.93 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 6c | 650.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.73 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 5c | 645.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.84 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…c779backed Yes | 8c | 594.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +564.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 16c | 559.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.71 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 8c | 542.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked Yes | 12c | 531.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.85 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 53c | 502.73$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 24c | 488.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1f…2cc3backed Yes | 4c | 426$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,281%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…17a9backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe640…e3f7backed Yes | 4c | 384$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,602.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 15c | 359.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.19 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 16c | 351.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.48 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 62c | 340$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.53 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 4c | 337.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed Yes | 15c | 332.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 21c | 319.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.04 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 6c | 228.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.41 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6c…687bbacked Yes | 17c | 226.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +190.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…487dbacked No | 23c | 226$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 166.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.9 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 15c | 162.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 64 | 23.4%15 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 137$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.69 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0c…b4bbbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 49c | 91.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 70.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 66.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafaa…2b42backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 27c | 46.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 36c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.