TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Tigre 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Pablo Varillas

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Varillasof Aguilar, Varillas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,896 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Aguilar63c9,108$5,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,775.52,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Aguilar48c6,053$2,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,909.562,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Varillas29c4,896$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,459.0755646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Varillas38c4,353$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,698.9865959%389 W · 270 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Aguilar44c3,108$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.58,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Aguilar47c2,893$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.712,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x903f…de5fbacked Varillas33c2,085$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.0516830.4%51 W · 117 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b96…b053backed Varillas32c2,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36022553.8%121 W · 104 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Varillas66c1,900$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.431,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Aguilar58c1,507$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.676,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Aguilar63c1,491$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.241,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xade0…e568backed Varillas47c1,070$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.366344.4%28 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Varillas57c894$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.061,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2a…d5d0backed Varillas63c891.88$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.5425062.8%157 W · 93 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed Varillas18c844.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.7362534.4%215 W · 410 L-20.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb58…a62ebacked Varillas69c843.38$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.2521767.7%147 W · 70 L-0.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Aguilar52c695.96$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.66,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Aguilar33c627.25$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.5275748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Varillas56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22046553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Varillas56c463$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.2199044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Aguilar39c460.53$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.316,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Varillas67c450$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9897046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9a…412ebacked Varillas46c432.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.5113439.6%53 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a0…92dfbacked Varillas23c427.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.0829637.5%111 W · 185 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x640b…ec00backed Varillas30c376.27$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.399738.1%37 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89fd…da5dbacked Varillas22c335.91$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.918845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db0…f397backed Varillas65c322$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.2113647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Aguilar32c290.71$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941,26634.2%433 W · 833 L-43.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ec…838fbacked Varillas73c284.41$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3918868.6%129 W · 59 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Aguilar34c283.17$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9527935.8%100 W · 179 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Varillas61c283$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.573745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Varillas71c282.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.531,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Varillas63c270.99$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.271060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b7f…e826backed Varillas59c270.2$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.269350.5%350 W · 343 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aguilar67c248.29$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.587,96850.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L+92.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…2b3abacked Varillas63c238.3$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.350364.6%325 W · 178 L+0.6wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b7…a035backed Varillas43c233.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.7423554.5%128 W · 107 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Aguilar35c232.18$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.214,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Varillas22c224.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.324643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Aguilar29c223.11$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.74,08239.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L+93.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61b…e7babacked Aguilar80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604967.3%33 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Varillas56c196.9$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.4244448.9%217 W · 227 L-13.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e5…293bbacked Varillas61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9310962.4%68 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f53…d57bbacked Varillas30c160.37$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.563644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Varillas68c150.2$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.84,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Varillas64c133.02$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0272132%231 W · 490 L-17.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93cb…3485backed Varillas80c124.63$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2130639.9%122 W · 184 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Aguilar31c124.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.871,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9183…59f0backed Aguilar29c118.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520039%78 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Aguilar33c114.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.696050%30 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24d…38b2backed Aguilar33c112.12$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379629.2%28 W · 68 L-11.4wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Varillas43c111.53$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.682,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6249…cee9backed Varillas62c104.84$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8412057.5%69 W · 51 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Aguilar36c103.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Varillas68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3277967.8%528 W · 251 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Aguilar32c99.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9836349.9%181 W · 182 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf1…99d3backed Aguilar72c91.57$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9338652.3%202 W · 184 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x126b…298fbacked Aguilar69c82.11$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.741942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Aguilar25c80.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc554…00adbacked Aguilar55c73.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.32646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e7b…9716backed Aguilar29c71.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.666134.4%21 W · 40 L-11.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Aguilar44c68.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,45645.1%656 W · 800 L+42.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77e5…7b3ebacked Varillas62c63.61$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.145261.5%32 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x750d…566bbacked Aguilar62c61.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1316356.4%92 W · 71 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Varillas50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3019052.6%100 W · 90 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Aguilar18c57.27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43616.7%6 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-59.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b20…f88dbacked Varillas63c55$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.55944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Varillas46c53.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7824931.3%78 W · 171 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bf2…85b7backed Varillas68c51.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.478958.4%52 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94a…0ff1backed Aguilar36c50.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.081258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Aguilar70c41.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5337549.1%184 W · 191 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a3…85c0backed Aguilar40c40.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d4…a896backed Varillas47c36.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.069652.1%50 W · 46 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9de5…e8f5backed Varillas56c35.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.769669.8%67 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Aguilar31c33.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4442046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c21…12bdbacked Aguilar71c29.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.791668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x637e…cd1abacked Varillas45c27.52$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+32%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Aguilar44c26.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x624e…a482backed Aguilar48c26.31$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.631656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Varillas62c26.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.981,48932.6%486 W · 1,003 L+22.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Aguilar74c22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.384,65048.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ca…54f0backed Aguilar56c21.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.812560%15 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9363…3608backed Varillas56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.712065%13 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0722…b704backed Varillas68c19.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Aguilar72c18.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1730254.3%164 W · 138 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f60…a419backed Aguilar79c16.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.982360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9894…65debacked Varillas77c16.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.717263.9%46 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb497…ce7ebacked Varillas76c14.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.48666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.