Tennis · resolved market

Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fdc32ae9d7c913a50c1ced84965c48a62cd6bb5fde901f8f241c06b1241f9e0

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $80,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,299 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4502…9ebdbacked Yes	1c	13,188$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.92	57	1.8%1 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	+94.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	1c	8,061$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	1c	3,075$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed Yes	1c	2,719$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.75	317	49.5%157 W · 160 L	-8.5wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	0c	2,373$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	444	23.9%106 W · 338 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b35…5393backed Yes	1c	1,916$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf42e…dd36backed Yes	1c	1,906$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2ee4backed Yes	2c	1,861$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…46a5backed Yes	1c	1,828$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f9d…464ebacked Yes	1c	1,810$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37ff…b784backed Yes	1c	1,753$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.53	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe87b…8d24backed Yes	1c	1,470$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9399…7de9backed Yes	1c	1,300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa592…dd3ebacked Yes	1c	1,239$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x484a…4d2abacked Yes	1c	1,002$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca1…4268backed Yes	1c	999.96$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	155	31.6%49 W · 106 L	-9.0wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd847…ae3abacked Yes	6c	320.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event