Tennis · resolved market

Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x928448fc3ab905b0b71449d5774a0e50947fd5ac69395ceb0f483d97be4c8de6

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $270,104
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $197,987

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $270,104 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe5ef…6382backed Yes	1c	67,633$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.49	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	11c	11,440$1,298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,297.72	82	26.8%22 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Yes	5c	10,730$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	360	38.9%140 W · 220 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca1…4268backed Yes	1c	7,196$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.65	155	31.6%49 W · 106 L	-9.0wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	3c	5,888$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.9	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcac…6621backed Yes	4c	5,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes	4c	4,859$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.37	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Yes	2c	4,348$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.74	1,865	44.7%834 W · 1,031 L	+36.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	8c	3,981$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.92	530	43%228 W · 302 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	6c	3,572$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	277	39%108 W · 169 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,888$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.71	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes	11c	2,813$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.78	87	10.3%9 W · 78 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	1c	2,055$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.54	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7926…0f10backed Yes	12c	2,045$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	4c	2,000$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	265	41.9%111 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes	9c	2,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	1c	1,876$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.83	444	23.9%106 W · 338 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	4c	1,718$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.13	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ac…efa9backed Yes	1c	1,631$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.56	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes	2c	1,367$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	1c	1,277$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.49	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	4c	1,216$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.65	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	2c	1,202$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes	11c	1,189$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	37cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9796…8718backed Yes	1c	1,174$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes	5c	1,079$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	+114.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes	11c	1,079$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.69	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3a…a56bbacked Yes	4c	999.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	171	49.1%84 W · 87 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aae…319cbacked Yes	11c	924.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes	7c	878.18$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.42	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e77…303fbacked Yes	4c	833.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	158	56.3%89 W · 69 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1995backed Yes	4c	799.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93cb…3485backed Yes	4c	682$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	306	39.9%122 W · 184 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes	2c	660.45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	1,865	45.6%851 W · 1,014 L	+50.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Yes	4c	586$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.09	967	55.3%535 W · 432 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Yes	4c	526.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6665…d1efbacked Yes	5c	500.69$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.62	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-94.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215b…e3b7backed Yes	4c	478.37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacf2…d272backed Yes	6c	430.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	103	35%36 W · 67 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-19%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa313…eb44backed Yes	12c	426.09$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.91	103	48.5%50 W · 53 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	10c	401.38$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.52	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-4.2wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	5c	391.01$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…78e0backed Yes	6c	370.83$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.91	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes	10c	356$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.1	226	51.8%117 W · 109 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4b5…1bd4backed Yes	6c	346.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	164	45.1%74 W · 90 L	-11.0wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	6c	314.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.12	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2fa…a809backed Yes	6c	278.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes	10c	207.44$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9393…18cfbacked Yes	6c	189.82$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b3…77d6backed Yes	6c	184.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes	8c	150.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.16per pick	26cpaid	-88.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event