Tennis · resolved market

Will Elise Mertens be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2abf37c994509bbd94f9b58e264431d4bae062a356a3e011940829812157e8f

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $131,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,758 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	0c	29,255$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c590backed Yes	2c	12,668$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.27	65	24.6%16 W · 49 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Yes	2c	8,779$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.46	1,206	8%96 W · 1,110 L	+17.2wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+80.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43f…16b2backed Yes	5c	5,046$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4502…9ebdbacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	57	1.8%1 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	+94.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	2c	3,457$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.89	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2f…35bbbacked Yes	1c	2,934$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.34	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	2,053$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.15	194	11.9%23 W · 171 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b9…6b7cbacked Yes	3c	1,759$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.9	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	2c	1,697$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.09	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…0df1backed Yes	6c	1,683$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.14	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	1,175$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17eb…8db2backed Yes	2c	1,056$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed Yes	3c	950$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	1c	948.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	444	23.9%106 W · 338 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	851.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.15	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x624b…56f8backed Yes	3c	738.71$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	2c	707.73$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.21	530	43%228 W · 302 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…2d37backed Yes	2c	580$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	90	40%36 W · 54 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Yes	3c	346.91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	967	55.3%535 W · 432 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1be7…a6e3backed Yes	5c	340.43$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f5…47c7backed Yes	6c	316.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef0…b68abacked Yes	6c	170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	97	38.1%37 W · 60 L	-7.4wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elise Mertens be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event