TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Minnesota Lynxof Toronto Tempo, Minnesota Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,593
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,593 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5482…b6eebacked Toronto Tempo0c4,689$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.58960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Minnesota Lynx69c2,904$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.528762.1%54 W · 33 L-0.4wins0.00per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Toronto Tempo0c2,801$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14908.9%8 W · 82 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Toronto Tempo31c2,571$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.0422748.5%110 W · 117 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Toronto Tempo30c2,467$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.9913950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0267…7f7ebacked Toronto Tempo25c2,378$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.221758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Tempo6c2,229$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1120947.4%99 W · 110 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Lynx75c2,198$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.5499548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Lynx68c2,089$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.951,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Toronto Tempo4c2,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744623.9%11 W · 35 L-7.7wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-48.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Minnesota Lynx70c1,620$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48636154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62a…f05bbacked Minnesota Lynx76c1,321$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.153073.3%22 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Toronto Tempo13c1,085$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.6912745.7%58 W · 69 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Toronto Tempo31c1,006$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.9223245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea1b…ec19backed Toronto Tempo30c999.97$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.992937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Toronto Tempo34c999.78$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.691050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8927…f5c6backed Toronto Tempo29c852.38$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.3613024.6%32 W · 98 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Toronto Tempo15c801.91$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4819428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Toronto Tempo30c650$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510337.9%39 W · 64 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd325…a4c4backed Minnesota Lynx78c639$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Toronto Tempo31c519.18$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9532049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Minnesota Lynx68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1602673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6858…7d47backed Minnesota Lynx70c430$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1292365.2%15 W · 8 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+76.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Minnesota Lynx75c397.95$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.1418844.1%83 W · 105 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Minnesota Lynx77c383.5$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4615250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0167…d002backed Toronto Tempo32c349.97$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.993053.3%16 W · 14 L+6.4wins+0.21per pick32cpaid+68.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe30e…4eedbacked Toronto Tempo4c337.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Minnesota Lynx69c308.15$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.044967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Toronto Tempo33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009635.4%34 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Toronto Tempo30c300.45$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.852142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Lynx80c293.11$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.9789349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Minnesota Lynx70c285.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5419458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed Minnesota Lynx79c268.1$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.451172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac1…d5a6backed Toronto Tempo31c250$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.58657%49 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a03…4066backed Minnesota Lynx69c246.38$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.381687.5%14 W · 2 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick55cpaid+64.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Minnesota Lynx69c236.78$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.446247%217 W · 245 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Tempo26c231.08$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.131,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Minnesota Lynx74c226.57$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.916749.3%33 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Toronto Tempo7c222.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.556640.9%27 W · 39 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8adc…7a1bbacked Toronto Tempo34c222.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751030%3 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x847b…274cbacked Toronto Tempo5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Minnesota Lynx69c170$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.717143.9%75 W · 96 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Minnesota Lynx70c168.24$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.1512144.6%54 W · 67 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x18e6…b54abacked Toronto Tempo16c162.22$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.692030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13a7…58e2backed Toronto Tempo33c149.96$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Minnesota Lynx67c146.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.495660.7%34 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdae6…7d39backed Toronto Tempo33c145.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Minnesota Lynx70c143.88$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.166854.4%37 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Minnesota Lynx70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Toronto Tempo26c141.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.799743.3%42 W · 55 L-6.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Toronto Tempo32c137.79$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7664152%333 W · 308 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7268…7e00backed Minnesota Lynx70c135.71$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.71650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58ed…b2d8backed Minnesota Lynx79c125.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Toronto Tempo32c117$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.445141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Toronto Tempo24c108.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4323955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Minnesota Lynx70c107.2$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.161353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Toronto Tempo32c105.13$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.156127.9%17 W · 44 L-10.1wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-42.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x58cc…2296backed Minnesota Lynx69c101.45$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.45757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Toronto Tempo29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2921337.6%80 W · 133 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+18%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6dab…e5c0backed Toronto Tempo15c96.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.161735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Minnesota Lynx76c96$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.048051.3%41 W · 39 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf808…742dbacked Toronto Tempo31c86.06$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.682634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Tempo24c82.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3737650.3%189 W · 187 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Minnesota Lynx67c79.48$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9361042.5%259 W · 351 L-31.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6f4…c415backed Minnesota Lynx76c78.53$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aa7…e3d9backed Toronto Tempo20c76.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.734617.4%8 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Toronto Tempo21c68.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.719646.9%92 W · 104 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Toronto Tempo24c66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9231448.4%152 W · 162 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Toronto Tempo33c64.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2814942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb84…0ac8backed Toronto Tempo31c61.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26ce…6da3backed Toronto Tempo33c59.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+90.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Minnesota Lynx67c59.7$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.71275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc668…0a90backed Toronto Tempo31c58.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.252347.8%11 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Toronto Tempo33c50.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.654852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93d…27a0backed Toronto Tempo31c48.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.977045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Minnesota Lynx71c46.34$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.643228.1%9 W · 23 L-6.7wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-44.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Toronto Tempo24c44.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.593528.6%10 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e2…2ed0backed Minnesota Lynx68c44.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121675%12 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+23.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e31…0e6ebacked Minnesota Lynx71c42.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.522680.8%21 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ac…e602backed Minnesota Lynx75c41.8$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+43%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Toronto Tempo29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.511156.8%63 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c2…ccd5backed Toronto Tempo30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5732…d4aebacked Minnesota Lynx70c39.12$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ded…3350backed Toronto Tempo32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Minnesota Lynx66c31.34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.571850%9 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x039b…89a3backed Toronto Tempo50c28.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc4d…8626backed Minnesota Lynx50c28.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1475…8984backed Minnesota Lynx70c28.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Minnesota Lynx70c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4932743.7%143 W · 184 L-23.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfcb5…1331backed Toronto Tempo50c24.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc2…592ebacked Minnesota Lynx50c24.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.45450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf1b…7333backed Minnesota Lynx50c24.7$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d5f…1d83backed Toronto Tempo50c24.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-66.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4d5b…acdcbacked Minnesota Lynx68c22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe87…71fcbacked Toronto Tempo50c21.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7699…7e3cbacked Minnesota Lynx50c21.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Minnesota Lynx70c20.31$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.092290.9%20 W · 2 L+6.6wins+0.30per pick61cpaid+52.9%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5e5a…724cbacked Minnesota Lynx70c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.71172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+28.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe31d…e7a4backed Minnesota Lynx70c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41c3…4d56backed Minnesota Lynx76c18.24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.38580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.