TailMyPicks
Market

Fifa International · resolved market

Lionel Messi: 5+ shots

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,675

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,638 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd34c…10b4backed Yes26c388.46$100 inLost-$10072424.7%179 W · 545 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa580…a6febacked Yes31c360.58$110 inLost-$110922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-59.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No74c303.85$225 inWon+$7937350.1%187 W · 186 L+45.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No72c276.36$200 inWon+$76.772,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e20…dd8abacked No69c194.42$134 inWon+$60.271681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.8wins+0.30per pick51cpaid+127.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3a18…edebbacked No77c171.95$132 inWon+$39.836250%31 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96d6…0c2abacked Yes29c105.15$30 inLost-$3050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4793…a932backed No71c97.48$69 inWon+$27.993964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4471…9d19backed Yes25c80$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No75c54.26$41 inWon+$13.322,79656.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L-9.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost-$158944.9%40 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No74c42.42$32 inWon+$10.8845472.9%331 W · 123 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x760d…0786backed No70c39.99$28 inWon+$1214557.9%84 W · 61 L+12.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35f5…d7c4backed No73c34.71$25 inWon+$9.277067.1%47 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No70c28.7$20 inWon+$8.6116564.2%106 W · 59 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No79c26.9$21 inWon+$5.568,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ec…1a4bbacked No78c19.16$15 inWon+$4.226366.7%42 W · 21 L+12.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+52.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No78c14.01$11 inWon+$3.089064.4%58 W · 32 L+11.7wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No75c14$11 inWon+$3.51,49241%612 W · 880 L-1.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.