Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e778d017e485186cc8e851ab989d91c4dbd2f9733260c4a8e1c8dbbf349d599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colombiaof Portugal, Colombia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Portugal | 10c | 43,463$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250.08 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Portugal | 9c | 21,957$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.73 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Portugal | 12c | 8,246$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.52 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -10.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Portugal | 7c | 3,707$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.38 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Portugal | 11c | 3,646$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.07 | 1,063 | 31.7%337 W · 726 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…9364backed Portugal | 12c | 3,406$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.74 | 119 | 34.5%41 W · 78 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Portugal | 12c | 3,381$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.57 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…ec6abacked Portugal | 11c | 3,105$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.94 | 431 | 39%168 W · 263 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…7e03backed Portugal | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Portugal | 12c | 2,775$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 361 | 23.5%85 W · 276 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…849bbacked Portugal | 12c | 2,010$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.21 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked Portugal | 11c | 1,784$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 154 | 18.8%29 W · 125 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Portugal | 11c | 1,568$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.48 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Portugal | 11c | 1,323$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Portugal | 9c | 1,067$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.01 | 1,627 | 32.1%523 W · 1,104 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Portugal | 12c | 1,017$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 608 | 21.9%133 W · 475 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…bf88backed Portugal | 10c | 900$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 193 | 32.6%63 W · 130 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Portugal | 4c | 864.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Portugal | 5c | 823.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351d…8574backed Portugal | 5c | 777$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Portugal | 8c | 618.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 360 | 31.7%114 W · 246 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683c…7392backed Portugal | 11c | 597.45$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Portugal | 4c | 560$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…a7ecbacked Portugal | 11c | 528.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Portugal | 11c | 504$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…09f1backed Portugal | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Portugal | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 470 | 49.4%232 W · 238 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…adbebacked Portugal | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 165 | 38.2%63 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Portugal | 9c | 362.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Portugal | 11c | 272$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Portugal | 8c | 270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Portugal | 5c | 250.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 432 | 30.1%130 W · 302 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…0228backed Portugal | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 75 | 9.3%7 W · 68 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Portugal | 12c | 244$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Portugal | 7c | 243.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2,307 | 37.6%867 W · 1,440 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…0efebacked Portugal | 12c | 241.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Portugal | 10c | 240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,421 | 47.8%679 W · 742 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Portugal | 6c | 207.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…cee0backed Portugal | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb8…135cbacked Portugal | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…d827backed Portugal | 8c | 183.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Portugal | 6c | 177$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…9fdabacked Portugal | 11c | 151.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 257 | 41.6%107 W · 150 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0243…b5a5backed Portugal | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…366fbacked Portugal | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…e4ddbacked Portugal | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 879 | 38.6%339 W · 540 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…c660backed Portugal | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)this page
- Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 1.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 2.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 5.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5Under won
- Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Colombia (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Colombia (-2.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Colombia (-4.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Colombia won
- Spread: Portugal (-3.5)Colombia won
- Spread: Portugal (-4.5)Colombia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.