TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

First Round Pool D: Netherlands vs. Israel

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Israelof Netherlands, Israel
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$216,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,180 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd36…6ec9backed Israel39c92,068$35,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,178.812254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Netherlands61c67,500$41,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,174.9870%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Netherlands47c35,461$16,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,622.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Israel38c33,344$12,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,560.033554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Netherlands62c25,380$15,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,676.21338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Netherlands62c10,600$6,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5721838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Israel37c9,412$3,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,949.061,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49d0…8503backed Netherlands63c8,864$5,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,574.913842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Israel38c8,788$3,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,488.3847447.3%224 W · 250 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Netherlands62c5,600$3,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,445.524443.2%19 W · 25 L-7.5wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-22.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Netherlands62c5,400$3,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,34823738%90 W · 147 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Netherlands64c5,152$3,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,296.2814953%79 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Israel36c4,561$1,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.1423351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Israel39c4,016$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.4577153.8%415 W · 356 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Netherlands64c3,104$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,001.720548.3%99 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Israel38c3,016$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.161,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Israel38c2,632$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,631.5819053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed Netherlands61c2,623$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6001323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.8wins-0.37per pick60cpaid-54.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb6dc…ab58backed Netherlands64c1,779$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.564540%18 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd1e6…1dc1backed Israel36c1,635$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.078247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Israel43c1,445$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82712037.5%45 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x973b…a912backed Israel39c1,282$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+66.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Netherlands6c1,207$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.031,19429%346 W · 848 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Israel39c1,156$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.7714924.2%36 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Netherlands64c1,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64011256.3%63 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Israel79c918.87$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.7385635.7%306 W · 550 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Netherlands62c905.97$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Netherlands61c665.2$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.71825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid+52.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Netherlands65c612.1$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.8212,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Israel32c603.17$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.6255541.4%230 W · 325 L-26.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Israel47c587.13$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.012,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Netherlands71c505.75$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.26,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Netherlands4c462.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Netherlands61c443$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.0912350.4%62 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Israel38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2487048.6%34 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Israel57c317.83$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.9135137%130 W · 221 L-17.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Netherlands64c306$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.845747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Netherlands65c300.92$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.650751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Netherlands11c298.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.551,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Israel23c248.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.011,94753.1%1,033 W · 914 L+43.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Israel37c228.7$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.311,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Israel36c227.95$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.891637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+42.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked Israel37c227.47$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.711338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6041…3326backed Netherlands61c209.35$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.49540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ae…6fc3backed Netherlands63c200$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+190.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Netherlands64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1282552%13 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Israel34c188.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.048,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Netherlands62c180.16$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.71361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24fc…ea73backed Netherlands64c178.41$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.181668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Israel36c169.82$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.11,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed Israel37c168.68$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.846749.3%33 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5037…a863backed Israel36c166.67$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+38.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x838d…3cbdbacked Netherlands61c164.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+51.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Netherlands62c161.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7906…1432backed Netherlands64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbb…7178backed Netherlands64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Israel61c155.71$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.088247.6%39 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid+28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e05…ae77backed Netherlands37c154.77$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9565…93efbacked Netherlands65c152.13$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3626…19e2backed Netherlands69c150$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.51010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-80.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x2ebf…2da0backed Netherlands26c144.05$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383941%16 W · 23 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Netherlands45c139$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.626,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Israel44c132$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1877852.2%406 W · 372 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3740…a935backed Netherlands63c130$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.44753.2%25 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f3…8382backed Israel39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.215046%23 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Netherlands65c123.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0817155%94 W · 77 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Netherlands44c122.31$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.321,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Netherlands61c114.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc98…f222backed Israel44c113.18$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Israel45c113$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Netherlands10c104$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.431038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Israel40c101.78$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.785928.8%17 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Netherlands64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6411844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe320…e0c5backed Israel25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751040%4 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+103.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Netherlands33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5578146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Israel36c99.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Israel37c98.38$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.981050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Israel51c95$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.668644.2%38 W · 48 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ce8…240cbacked Netherlands65c92.31$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Netherlands53c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.740846.1%188 W · 220 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked Netherlands60c83.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Israel65c83$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8710353.4%55 W · 48 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Israel37c80$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.49655.2%53 W · 43 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Israel37c79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7772247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcabc…46f4backed Israel38c78.95$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.951376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaa1…176bbacked Netherlands61c73.77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca06…23d0backed Israel37c67.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d0…6070backed Netherlands63c66.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.22665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…038cbacked Netherlands61c65.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408355.4%46 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e72…c55fbacked Netherlands61c65.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.86450%32 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Israel36c55.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.55650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9d…1299backed Israel36c55.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.522846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Netherlands38c54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.521,72850.4%871 W · 857 L+57.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Netherlands60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Israel35c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.52,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Israel38c47.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3232451.9%168 W · 156 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Israel38c47.43$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4113345.9%61 W · 72 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Israel34c46.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4395041.5%394 W · 556 L-48.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4adb…515dbacked Israel31c42.61$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.35475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+213.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Israel37c40.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.