TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gen.Gof Gen.G, Kiwoom DRX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$160,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,504 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40ea…832fbacked Gen.G73c22,921$16,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,194.1520339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Kiwoom DRX27c20,022$5,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,405.9254353.8%292 W · 251 L+32.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Kiwoom DRX27c15,396$4,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,156.938735.9%139 W · 248 L-14.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Gen.G72c13,844$9,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,876.261,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b6…2fefbacked Gen.G73c12,369$9,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,339.513050%15 W · 15 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Kiwoom DRX28c10,221$2,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,861.814528.9%13 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-33.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Gen.G73c10,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9992254%498 W · 424 L-1.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Kiwoom DRX29c9,800$2,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,841.9916356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Kiwoom DRX27c5,555$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.8525243.7%110 W · 142 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a6…ab62backed Kiwoom DRX27c4,179$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.413831.2%43 W · 95 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed Kiwoom DRX27c3,104$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.6441439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Gen.G71c2,997$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.257958.2%46 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Kiwoom DRX28c2,898$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.521,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Gen.G71c2,701$1,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.290348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc99…e947backed Kiwoom DRX29c2,142$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.166434.4%22 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Gen.G72c2,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0636…c529backed Kiwoom DRX28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56011249.1%55 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Gen.G71c1,654$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.726360.1%158 W · 105 L+1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc639…b442backed Gen.G71c1,507$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.031968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ba8…d72bbacked Gen.G72c1,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42017659.7%105 W · 71 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Gen.G72c1,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4208558.8%50 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Kiwoom DRX28c1,500$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.997030%21 W · 49 L-8.4wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-34.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x642c…21a7backed Kiwoom DRX28c1,310$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.4135054.6%191 W · 159 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Kiwoom DRX22c1,238$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.8717342.2%73 W · 100 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00c9…1d82backed Kiwoom DRX27c1,097$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.071050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed Kiwoom DRX15c1,014$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1756432.1%181 W · 383 L-2.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Gen.G71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29051160.3%308 W · 203 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Gen.G72c1,000$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed Gen.G73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2701,15355.9%645 W · 508 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8976…7367backed Kiwoom DRX15c996.62$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.499533.7%32 W · 63 L-9.7wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Gen.G73c888$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.7614352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cd…93f5backed Gen.G73c821.92$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.9223672%170 W · 66 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Kiwoom DRX28c800$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22485746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Gen.G74c743.73$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.7311959.7%71 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Kiwoom DRX26c722.55$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.8652750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac42…60d1backed Kiwoom DRX27c705$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.47626.3%20 W · 56 L-7.8wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Kiwoom DRX27c700$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1892,36731.9%756 W · 1,611 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Gen.G72c694.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4435353.5%189 W · 164 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7299…31f3backed Kiwoom DRX28c690.86$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4412834.4%44 W · 84 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Gen.G73c679.36$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8349947.1%235 W · 264 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Gen.G72c600$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681,80251.2%923 W · 879 L+53.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…ff77backed Kiwoom DRX28c566.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.762441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd72e…b58fbacked Kiwoom DRX29c537$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.731421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.9wins-0.35per pick56cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd9a5…c602backed Kiwoom DRX30c522$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.629927.8%83 W · 216 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Gen.G73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13517561.1%107 W · 68 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed Gen.G73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13537647.9%180 W · 196 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Gen.G73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13590350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Kiwoom DRX27c499.96$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.9944335.4%157 W · 286 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kiwoom DRX26c499.91$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.981,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54f6…b0f2backed Gen.G73c435.62$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.624461.4%27 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5217…ec29backed Kiwoom DRX28c429.27$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.221154.5%115 W · 96 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd991…c161backed Gen.G71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5431955.8%178 W · 141 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Kiwoom DRX28c421.43$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Gen.G73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.9610351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51e6…80d2backed Kiwoom DRX27c399.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10811244.6%50 W · 62 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed Kiwoom DRX29c379.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11016941.4%70 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Kiwoom DRX28c368$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0422142.5%94 W · 127 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Kiwoom DRX28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f63…89f3backed Kiwoom DRX29c350$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.53946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0650…865cbacked Kiwoom DRX28c350$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Kiwoom DRX28c346.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9711540.9%47 W · 68 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec10…ff8cbacked Gen.G72c341.88$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.731172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765f…1508backed Gen.G73c341.43$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8849461.3%303 W · 191 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Gen.G70c330.4$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.1270456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa415…6fb9backed Kiwoom DRX29c312$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3426856.7%152 W · 116 L+1.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked Kiwoom DRX30c300$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9060538.8%235 W · 370 L-1.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x321d…d0acbacked Kiwoom DRX25c299.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.212462.9%78 W · 46 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Gen.G71c285.56$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.819149.5%45 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b2b…d4d3backed Gen.G73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9710240.2%41 W · 61 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed Gen.G73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9741743.9%183 W · 234 L+1.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31db…c25fbacked Kiwoom DRX30c267.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.317556.6%99 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Kiwoom DRX26c264.69$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.821,61148.4%780 W · 831 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa04b…f09bbacked Kiwoom DRX30c255.88$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed Gen.G72c253.35$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.947558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9f…7d7fbacked Kiwoom DRX28c249.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709535.8%34 W · 61 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked Gen.G73c220.33$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4924949.8%124 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Gen.G73c218$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8613254.5%72 W · 60 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6df…588cbacked Kiwoom DRX29c218$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2211450%57 W · 57 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Kiwoom DRX28c211.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2821944.3%97 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Gen.G71c209.98$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8979653.1%423 W · 373 L-17.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…e969backed Gen.G72c205$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.41,24652.6%656 W · 590 L+4.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f3b…0cf9backed Gen.G73c204.11$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1116456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed Gen.G74c194.62$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.644451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf8…03b2backed Gen.G73c191.78$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7836852.2%192 W · 176 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Kiwoom DRX29c186.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1318560.5%112 W · 73 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Gen.G74c167$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4238358%222 W · 161 L-1.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Gen.G72c159.13$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5545041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Gen.G73c158.28$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.741,35651.1%693 W · 663 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6888…4c79backed Gen.G72c156$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6810253.9%55 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Kiwoom DRX27c147.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8360849.5%301 W · 307 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked Kiwoom DRX13c142.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5848944.4%217 W · 272 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Kiwoom DRX28c142.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4081333%268 W · 545 L-43.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x500f…4c28backed Gen.G72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8918849.5%93 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf29…834cbacked Gen.G74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.148253.7%44 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Gen.G71c126.76$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7636044.7%161 W · 199 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Kiwoom DRX27c125$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1379745.8%365 W · 432 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03c4…6f4ebacked Gen.G73c121.18$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1824453.3%130 W · 114 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c5…b613backed Kiwoom DRX29c120.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9614561.4%89 W · 56 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b1…b470backed Gen.G73c118.85$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.097335.6%26 W · 47 L-9.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-37.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Kiwoom DRX29c113.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0186144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.