TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Washington Mysticsof Seattle Storm, Washington Mystics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$304,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$353,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,483 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x70dc…1dfdbacked Washington Mystics43c32,825$13,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,844.816467.2%43 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Washington Mystics68c11,893$8,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,810.6910749.5%53 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Seattle Storm57c10,796$6,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,128.0310340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a87…fa35backed Seattle Storm0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Washington Mystics66c9,979$6,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,344.67825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x32d2…8850backed Seattle Storm61c7,917$4,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,805.52366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Storm48c7,567$3,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,668.321,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Seattle Storm20c6,139$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.281618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-70.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Storm42c5,689$2,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,368.5450646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Seattle Storm55c5,428$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.0412045%54 W · 66 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Mystics63c5,211$3,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.781,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Seattle Storm44c5,076$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,238.1531043.2%134 W · 176 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Storm47c4,046$1,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.3499548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Seattle Storm22c4,041$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.3115741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Seattle Storm30c3,802$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.592055%11 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Mystics63c3,672$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.7836154%195 W · 166 L+0.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Seattle Storm48c3,457$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.0519458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Mystics49c3,434$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.7726147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Washington Mystics62c3,430$2,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.2412144.6%54 W · 67 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc308…7b09backed Seattle Storm2c3,301$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5444915.6%70 W · 379 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Storm32c3,197$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.9989349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Washington Mystics78c2,984$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.7921446.3%99 W · 115 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Washington Mystics67c2,830$1,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.4136750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0458…92e9backed Washington Mystics68c2,602$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.6520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-70.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Seattle Storm54c2,409$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.547431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17d6…f1e2backed Seattle Storm38c2,289$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.41812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9ef…b630backed Seattle Storm55c2,205$1,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.644533.3%15 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Storm34c2,082$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.4523245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Mystics35c2,011$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.115346.4%71 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Mystics56c1,808$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.1850952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Storm32c1,684$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.9340550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Seattle Storm34c1,673$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.567746.8%36 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Seattle Storm33c1,608$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.5927449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Seattle Storm57c1,553$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.7955255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Washington Mystics67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.543844.7%17 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfff3…e2c5backed Seattle Storm44c1,319$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.981118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-66.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf202…9ea8backed Washington Mystics63c1,263$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.483762.2%23 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Seattle Storm47c1,075$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.3719428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Washington Mystics58c1,073$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.0110634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Seattle Storm7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703020%6 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Seattle Storm37c998.98$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.298733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Washington Mystics55c972.35$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.1619031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Storm53c950.02$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.917656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Seattle Storm32c937.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e8…ebb7backed Seattle Storm51c844.93$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-62.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe4f…6d4bbacked Washington Mystics68c735.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b6…4b40backed Seattle Storm34c715.15$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.7312234.4%42 W · 80 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Storm53c697.26$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.8110858.3%63 W · 45 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Mystics57c631.61$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.4232150.2%161 W · 160 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Seattle Storm44c619.65$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.4514947.7%71 W · 78 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd360…2eabbacked Seattle Storm53c615.09$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3261118.2%2 W · 9 L-4.1wins-0.37per pick55cpaid-69.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x60ec…de2ebacked Washington Mystics50c604.9$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.9520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Seattle Storm32c587.79$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0917946.4%83 W · 96 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Washington Mystics35c585$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.253351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Seattle Storm32c529.81$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.516934.8%24 W · 45 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Seattle Storm36c504.42$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2941147%193 W · 218 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Seattle Storm32c499.98$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.999318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedfa…fd66backed Seattle Storm57c488.29$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.282524%6 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-55.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ff…d56cbacked Seattle Storm59c476.11$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Washington Mystics58c470.67$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.0416633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Washington Mystics46c448$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.927740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Seattle Storm27c435.81$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.738837.5%33 W · 55 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed Washington Mystics68c423$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.364431.8%14 W · 30 L-7.5wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-36.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf983…39a0backed Washington Mystics53c410.96$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.961030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-41.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Seattle Storm44c403.08$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.929146.2%42 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c73…750abacked Washington Mystics43c399.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Seattle Storm43c393$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4823955.2%132 W · 107 L+12.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Seattle Storm4c390.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0510838.9%42 W · 66 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Seattle Storm43c386.16$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.5538744.7%173 W · 214 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed Washington Mystics56c367.73$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Mystics66c331.77$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.7883748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Washington Mystics45c327.74$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.832948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Washington Mystics60c322.01$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4915250.7%77 W · 75 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Washington Mystics52c314.56$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9210538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked Seattle Storm35c314.29$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Seattle Storm45c310.84$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.367150.7%36 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Mystics65c309.11$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1932750.2%164 W · 163 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Seattle Storm60c301$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.219444.7%42 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa68…ba5dbacked Washington Mystics68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968053.8%43 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d6c2backed Seattle Storm33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993342.4%14 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked Washington Mystics67c296.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.765457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Seattle Storm50c295.92$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.257368.5%50 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fec…b125backed Washington Mystics59c286.15$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…7ee6backed Washington Mystics61c261.32$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.327062.9%44 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Mystics59c260.01$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8631847.8%152 W · 166 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Seattle Storm35c256.96$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.6815938.4%61 W · 98 L-16.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Seattle Storm60c256$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5415748.4%76 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Seattle Storm33c253.54$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.71650%8 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+62.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdde…0b07backed Seattle Storm4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe611…2970backed Seattle Storm45c243.26$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Storm48c241.83$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8630347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c0…dadabacked Washington Mystics42c233.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.412040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7886…ec60backed Seattle Storm68c233.35$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.68850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x928d…c482backed Washington Mystics41c222.43$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Seattle Storm43c219.92$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5920340.9%83 W · 120 L-16.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Washington Mystics49c203.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0712846.1%59 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa681…8b89backed Seattle Storm48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x029e…b19cbacked Seattle Storm55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0785…3540backed Seattle Storm55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-67.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf990…88bcbacked Seattle Storm33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663135.5%11 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.