TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: GenOne vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
NEW VISIONof GenOne, NEW VISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,300
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,300 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed GenOne38c8,382$3,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,184.441,43139%558 W · 873 L-41.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked NEW VISION15c7,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3756454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed NEW VISION77c6,380$4,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.822,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked NEW VISION15c6,322$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,373.7777052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed NEW VISION14c6,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,16072046.1%332 W · 388 L-2.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed NEW VISION32c5,898$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,022.2367951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked NEW VISION44c5,817$2,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,280.7232752.3%171 W · 156 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed GenOne59c5,326$3,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,116.0210749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed GenOne2c4,497$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.81,64946.9%774 W · 875 L-28.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed NEW VISION15c4,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4001,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42d…94d3backed GenOne66c3,477$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.246152.5%32 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed GenOne26c2,984$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.8926624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked GenOne56c2,500$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,409.858964%57 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed NEW VISION14c2,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.9923848.3%115 W · 123 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed NEW VISION14c2,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.991,08950.9%554 W · 535 L+38.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked NEW VISION40c1,977$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.815658.3%91 W · 65 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa307…03d0backed GenOne68c1,976$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13c8…a814backed GenOne57c1,806$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.529951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NEW VISION53c1,650$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.975,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked GenOne55c1,570$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.443,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed NEW VISION15c1,565$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.481,04153.1%553 W · 488 L+63.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked GenOne56c1,549$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.782,39742.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b88…16e6backed NEW VISION23c1,521$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,171.2715823.4%37 W · 121 L-18.0wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-44.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4c13…71a1backed NEW VISION45c1,500$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8253545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed GenOne60c1,353$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.112,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed NEW VISION17c1,251$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.8297240.7%396 W · 576 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed NEW VISION38c1,137$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.034,09951%2,091 W · 2,008 L+74.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked NEW VISION38c1,133$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.677,99050.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L+180.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b61…a7fabacked GenOne15c1,102$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed NEW VISION25c1,062$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.4545439.6%180 W · 274 L+1.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed NEW VISION76c1,057$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.913655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked NEW VISION40c1,015$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.4626345.2%119 W · 144 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed NEW VISION17c1,010$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.295,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed NEW VISION14c1,006$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.1634626.9%93 W · 253 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked GenOne55c1,005$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.8929127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed NEW VISION16c1,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84031843.1%137 W · 181 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1186…0355backed NEW VISION46c870.27$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.5623356.2%131 W · 102 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked NEW VISION56c853.72$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.273,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed GenOne47c832.24$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.7142854.9%235 W · 193 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x635d…7047backed NEW VISION24c819.99$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.65747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed NEW VISION47c813.05$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.9119358%112 W · 81 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f17…7035backed NEW VISION46c796.35$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.3945565.9%300 W · 155 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b6d…2f1abacked NEW VISION38c783.06$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.062821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked NEW VISION39c777.37$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$477.3718743.9%82 W · 105 L-10.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked NEW VISION54c766.87$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.3281744.7%365 W · 452 L-2.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f4…cddbbacked NEW VISION48c751$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.1213371.4%95 W · 38 L+11.8wins+0.09per pick63cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed NEW VISION29c750.91$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.5252150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42cd…2359backed GenOne56c714.29$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4521…aeb7backed GenOne63c709.99$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed NEW VISION58c699.79$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.692,45644.5%1,093 W · 1,363 L-67.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1311…b275backed NEW VISION28c681.36$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.881822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-32.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked NEW VISION15c679$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.1536847.6%175 W · 193 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x270e…53cabacked NEW VISION45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.678756.3%49 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed NEW VISION39c660.08$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.221250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+36.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7100…c12abacked NEW VISION39c653.73$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.953537.1%13 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed NEW VISION49c623.31$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.562,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb55b…c5b4backed NEW VISION26c619.93$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.7435153.8%189 W · 162 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked GenOne61c615$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.051,79059.2%1,060 W · 730 L+106.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed NEW VISION15c600.03$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.231,00748.5%488 W · 519 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20fc…7ac9backed GenOne65c570.78$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3d…9488backed NEW VISION48c565.69$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.824233.3%14 W · 28 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed GenOne55c549.99$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.499360.2%56 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed NEW VISION24c548.13$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.791,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed NEW VISION42c534.85$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.251540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75d…0717backed NEW VISION27c533.12$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.7131043.9%136 W · 174 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed NEW VISION14c524.55$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.1156239.5%222 W · 340 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c2b…825ebacked GenOne58c517.7$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013650.7%69 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe6…2faebacked NEW VISION17c509.34$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.217345.2%33 W · 40 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked GenOne52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2607047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed NEW VISION15c499.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.998549.4%42 W · 43 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed NEW VISION15c492.3$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.4639245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bc5…e563backed NEW VISION64c463.61$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.028534.1%29 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed GenOne75c449.99$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.55464.8%35 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked NEW VISION18c430.56$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.3112727.6%35 W · 92 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf6f…9f0abacked NEW VISION45c429.02$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.966352.4%33 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1493…41acbacked NEW VISION44c411.11$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.113542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked NEW VISION15c385$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.2576933.8%260 W · 509 L-48.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c2a…a4bbbacked NEW VISION24c384.13$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.787534.7%26 W · 49 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked NEW VISION57c375.08$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.592,67247.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec8c…3bcdbacked NEW VISION14c359.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5935131.1%109 W · 242 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c2…c630backed NEW VISION43c348.83$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed GenOne42c347.3$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3743457.1%248 W · 186 L+20.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed GenOne60c337.69$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.822,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked GenOne58c324.73$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.321,89041.9%791 W · 1,099 L-71.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae27…6fb2backed NEW VISION45c322.52$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.0516230.2%49 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed NEW VISION16c320$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.81,08737.5%408 W · 679 L+33.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed NEW VISION15c310.13$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.6337848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed NEW VISION15c310$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26233844.4%150 W · 188 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked NEW VISION45c286.83$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.7629235.6%104 W · 188 L-11.0wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed GenOne56c282.52$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2119448.5%94 W · 100 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed NEW VISION68c278.51$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.461,11054.2%602 W · 508 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked GenOne64c274.77$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.765,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51cf…45fbbacked NEW VISION45c264$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.22240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked GenOne80c254.92$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.721,52351.5%785 W · 738 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed GenOne18c248.07$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.842,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe7fc…381abacked NEW VISION39c240$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.83727%10 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x185c…f797backed GenOne55c239.06$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked GenOne76c237.54$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8666446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1273…8eddbacked NEW VISION16c237.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.521857.3%125 W · 93 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5a9…c576backed NEW VISION26c223.84$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.233441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.