Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 2–3 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77a6a7b8b7b8e350183f8545c25a8d64d24fc3adc3844d6af57c6bf1303411f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9578…f066backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.2 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…c07ebacked No | 50c | 707$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 35c | 393$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 373.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf379…c1cabacked Yes | 73c | 337.36$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…f768backed Yes | 53c | 250$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…9371backed Yes | 68c | 249.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 32c | 237$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 22c | 214.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 169.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 42c | 127.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 32c | 76.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bf…c29bbacked No | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 62c | 55.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x676c…ce51backed Yes | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 50.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…dd76backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f32…ba71backed Yes | 68c | 28.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7428…1d56backed Yes | 54c | 25.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 76c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…d6edbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…2e36backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 78c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 2–3 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?this page
- Will 0–1 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?No won
- Will 4–5 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?No won
- Will 6–7 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?No won
- Will more than 10 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.