TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$68,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$78,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,269 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6761…a94fbacked No45c23,475$10,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,922.210650%53 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20cc…ebc0backed Yes54c12,168$6,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,622.411657.8%67 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a627backed Yes55c10,600$5,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8301643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Yes44c3,505$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.3137841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed No80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.3739561.3%242 W · 153 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes21c2,311$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.4129643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes23c2,020$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.2168026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yes55c1,688$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.6134251.8%177 W · 165 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No6c1,583$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.027839.7%31 W · 47 L+15.6wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+437.8%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x6bf1…5014backed No62c1,583$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.18650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec1…f74ebacked No45c1,578$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes20c1,363$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.3379650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d92…4b39backed No70c1,350$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed Yes23c1,343$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.975453.7%29 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f2…a3e2backed No46c1,317$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.332634.6%9 W · 17 L-5.5wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes35c1,219$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.3769772.6%506 W · 191 L+83.8wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+26.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked No50c1,003$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.749238%35 W · 57 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.456100%6 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2308145.7%37 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bb5…f2a5backed Yes23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd8…eb7bbacked No77c999.99$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes32c998.18$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.6640640.9%166 W · 240 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83da…41f7backed Yes22c960.22$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.151947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed Yes55c800$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.59037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc7…3a04backed No77c700$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1611850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes20c694.02$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.840254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed Yes55c599.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33021353.1%113 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed Yes21c568.7$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.117240.3%29 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d8…f9c5backed No79c506.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.334663%29 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No77c425.84$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4790751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ec…3344backed Yes24c400$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x763f…81e9backed No77c389.91$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.682653.8%14 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.17per pick71cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8cd…3cf2backed No77c339.57$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.338362.7%52 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes21c326$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.594537.8%17 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked Yes14c310.37$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4519743.7%86 W · 111 L+32.4wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+142.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed No46c289.13$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.137737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c279.49$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8966031.2%206 W · 454 L-13.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8742755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…c906backed No78c242.31$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.31450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cd…185cbacked Yes23c241.35$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes20c222$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.417143.3%74 W · 97 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Yes24c211.66$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.88943.8%39 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd31…4f6dbacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c7b…a592backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb10d…becebacked No76c197.37$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.371361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cd…32d0backed Yes21c177.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.35554.5%30 W · 25 L+10.6wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+60.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf7d2…f555backed No79c177$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.1718260.4%110 W · 72 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefbd…d9d8backed Yes21c168.16$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…d647backed Yes19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f95…3012backed Yes22c149.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked No47c148$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.024839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd767…50bebacked No78c138.49$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.47742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd00…e43ebacked Yes22c134.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2452…4571backed No45c131.11$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.112458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70de…a1f3backed Yes24c110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.48047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed No46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.74042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes13c108$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.436954.5%201 W · 168 L+50.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+91.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Yes22c105$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9340135.2%141 W · 260 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa32b…e132backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2229653%157 W · 139 L-23.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x12d8…7359backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfc5…817ebacked No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6753…7340backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked No54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464637%17 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb295…4ee4backed No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2315554.8%85 W · 70 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d69…9829backed Yes21c99.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212560%15 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83e2…ce08backed Yes56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.42941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20f7…635ebacked No79c90$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes20c75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514450.7%73 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ff…b701backed No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.16544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7801…422bbacked No52c63.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.32035%7 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-43.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x58d2…7b07backed No80c62.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.56714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf81c…b112backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611100%11 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7eee…b4b2backed No77c55$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.521463.1%135 W · 79 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ab…5fb4backed Yes56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211915.1%18 W · 101 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d44…b15ebacked No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x682a…4b62backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f70…6215backed No64c46.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.911457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3af3…dc15backed No54c44.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6339…a6bdbacked No44c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1bc…4763backed Yes35c34.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95ec…521cbacked No45c27.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.222544%11 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6b00backed Yes56c27.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.412347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked No50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.59858.2%57 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b22…b715backed Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb17…13fabacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42875%21 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9797…4e3dbacked No79c18.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.992171.4%15 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick76cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba0…471ebacked No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751450%7 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d25…a149backed No78c17.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2636…0236backed No78c17.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.81966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3161…52dbbacked No79c15.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.322286.4%19 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick75cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef04…88c3backed No79c15.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.191471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a2…866dbacked No79c13.92$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.923100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x804f…c444backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick79cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb61…3680backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1a…af71backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick72cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb66f…93f8backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.