AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8067462a399c0e7bca8724975ceb67c5e65aedbb7e0f4b083accf1b036c6b527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 19c | 6,260$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.19 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 4,585$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…b99cbacked Yes | 42c | 2,592$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 17c | 2,520$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.87 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…db70backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,463$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,310$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 22c | 1,159$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.31 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 31c | 1,017$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.18 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b5…8417backed Yes | 17c | 921.21$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 15c | 898.69$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.16 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 726.68$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 29c | 535.34$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 13c | 485.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 461.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 363.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 18c | 353.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 24c | 319.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.76 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 10c | 282.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 49c | 257.9$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 244.33$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…7f7bbacked Yes | 31c | 231.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 16c | 213.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 178.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 12c | 155.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3793…170abacked No | 78c | 153.91$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked Yes | 50c | 152.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…964ebacked Yes | 28c | 147$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed No | 57c | 143.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 15c | 141.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fb…9641backed Yes | 11c | 135.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…b6b0backed Yes | 38c | 131.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…63fdbacked Yes | 34c | 123.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 15c | 112.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 96.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0986…4e45backed Yes | 18c | 91.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 22c | 89.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 60c | 81.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 20c | 79.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25f…a460backed No | 45c | 67.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…dc40backed Yes | 35c | 63.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 77c | 60.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 19c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 49c | 51.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 62c | 33.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 34c | 32.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 30.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 54c | 27.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed No | 51c | 23.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 52c | 22.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…03f7backed No | 70c | 15.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes won
- Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.