AI · resolved market
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e5177c73186a77fba0d2039dfe3432bebf7f4ab9775570de88bf6ffbd780339
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 77c | 3,362$2,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 3c | 2,400$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 78c | 2,326$1,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.91 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6411backed Yes | 70c | 855.88$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked No | 19c | 842.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +305.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 732.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.01 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 60c | 684.85$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.55 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 49c | 660.58$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.33 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 41c | 660.34$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.46 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 18c | 649.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 29c | 625.87$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.41 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 72c | 623.4$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 60c | 622.34$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.66 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 44c | 570.64$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.75 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4623backed No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 76c | 497.73$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 63c | 394.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…b557backed No | 37c | 372.25$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +317.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 44c | 299.95$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.22 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 23c | 287.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 70c | 230.2$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.97 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 41c | 213.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…08a9backed Yes | 49c | 208.61$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 45c | 207.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7052…0db8backed No | 18c | 186.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed No | 7c | 184.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2f…d6b1backed Yes | 59c | 177.29$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…c708backed Yes | 68c | 170.65$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 77c | 167.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 58c | 163.89$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1767…964ebacked Yes | 60c | 147$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 141.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 63c | 122.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x315c…217bbacked No | 34c | 116.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 25c | 114.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 58c | 110.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 26c | 106.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 39c | 105.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…fd67backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 22c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 88.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…4832backed No | 27c | 73.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…ddb2backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85c…cffbbacked Yes | 73c | 67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…2640backed Yes | 70c | 64.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 78c | 64.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 80c | 55.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 45c | 53.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x526d…5120backed No | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 16cpaid | +646.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 45c | 39.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 42c | 37.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 50c | 36.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 30c | 36.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x401c…ee2dbacked Yes | 41c | 33.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…a7b8backed Yes | 44c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 77c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ad…d4c3backed No | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed Yes | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 42c | 26.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 58c | 23.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…189cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…5444backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb44…cf6abacked Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.