TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

New Mexico vs. Michigan State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michigan Stateof New Mexico, Michigan State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,995
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,566

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,995 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed New Mexico26c26,624$6,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,922.237912.7%10 W · 69 L-13.1wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-65.2%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked New Mexico12c24,911$2,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,989.323641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Michigan State74c24,786$18,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,324.458644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked New Mexico29c16,793$4,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,815.6810335.9%37 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed New Mexico40c13,446$5,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,428.9210041%41 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c05…36b3backed Michigan State67c9,944$6,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,257.371931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2b8…5ce5backed Michigan State68c8,000$5,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.332759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49d0…8503backed Michigan State59c7,500$4,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0754242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+151.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a5…f9babacked New Mexico24c6,745$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6008143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Michigan State68c6,557$4,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.758356.6%47 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Michigan State73c5,255$3,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,417.733243.8%14 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked New Mexico0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10822.4%2 W · 80 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-88.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked New Mexico26c4,929$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.895054%27 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3078…3e11backed New Mexico27c4,253$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1514134.1%14 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-40.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Michigan State74c3,950$2,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.516053.8%86 W · 74 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35aa…94bcbacked Michigan State60c3,820$2,284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5361225%3 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-62.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed New Mexico17c3,097$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.062924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Michigan State73c2,800$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76442948.5%208 W · 221 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Michigan State73c2,704$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked New Mexico10c2,690$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.42927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed Michigan State59c2,547$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0403046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed New Mexico29c2,500$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7359641.7%40 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked New Mexico27c2,442$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.34632.6%15 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Michigan State73c2,226$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.028232.9%27 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked New Mexico27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025043.2%108 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00e2…d56abacked Michigan State72c1,846$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.894254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11fc…f8c4backed New Mexico27c1,789$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4832227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed New Mexico1c1,635$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.35922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked New Mexico26c1,559$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.361838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe98b…780dbacked New Mexico52c1,433$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7521546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1186…051bbacked Michigan State74c1,337$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854f…00a7backed New Mexico26c1,083$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.433016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Michigan State66c1,020$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.2455657.4%319 W · 237 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed New Mexico46c1,005$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4602222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-23.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe4f…5241backed New Mexico32c995.15$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.6850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed New Mexico20c980$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19639144.5%174 W · 217 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed New Mexico27c841$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.364831.3%15 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Michigan State74c813.03$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.232161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed New Mexico25c799.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016842.3%71 W · 97 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Michigan State59c700$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2886127.9%17 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x014a…c77ebacked New Mexico31c650.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed New Mexico24c633.12$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.951338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked New Mexico26c600.98$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2515851.9%82 W · 76 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd47…8277backed New Mexico38c544.7$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.341127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked New Mexico44c540$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2351926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.23per pick49cpaid-52.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8ba8…61b7backed New Mexico24c505.79$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.62650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+1,052.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b8e…66bfbacked Michigan State62c500.76$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.28944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed New Mexico26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1306934.8%24 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked New Mexico26c499.39$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.61,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New Mexico16c474.71$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.213,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51d6…d072backed Michigan State74c425$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+37.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Michigan State74c422.78$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.921353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b2…ffd0backed New Mexico13c412$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2490%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Michigan State75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003050%15 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked New Mexico6c377.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.669745.4%44 W · 53 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+18.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Michigan State73c370.38$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1008151.9%42 W · 39 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Michigan State74c370.14$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.242060%12 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Michigan State71c339.37$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.372568%17 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+21.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf72…723abacked Michigan State74c301.46$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked Michigan State60c300$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1211346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Michigan State72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844932.7%16 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+56%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd3…7214backed New Mexico21c280.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.021625%4 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Michigan State74c271.45$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5748462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Michigan State73c270$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.99833.7%33 W · 65 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x40b3…6159backed Michigan State74c268.13$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.13785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.38per pick47cpaid+135.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37e5…316dbacked New Mexico13c247.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.152619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91b0…f0b6backed Michigan State74c240$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4698…6c24backed Michigan State74c227.4$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.43669.4%25 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked New Mexico26c222$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.612123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.23per pick47cpaid-59.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4b74backed New Mexico28c214.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605514.5%8 W · 47 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab96…ae06backed New Mexico48c200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.540%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed New Mexico27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544450%22 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+43.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc828…66b7backed New Mexico22c195.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.952227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick43cpaid+36.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed New Mexico27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507860.3%47 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5f…7df9backed New Mexico29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed New Mexico28c168$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47419.8%4 W · 37 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-67.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8053…2a8ebacked New Mexico40c161.2$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked New Mexico44c156.7$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.95933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Michigan State74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1410558.1%61 W · 44 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c54…cc1ebacked Michigan State74c135$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick65cpaid+39.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb956…c475backed Michigan State75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-73.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked New Mexico25c113.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2753057.4%304 W · 226 L+33.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b90…3d27backed New Mexico31c111.11$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3517122.8%39 W · 132 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f0…7e92backed New Mexico47c106.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed New Mexico27c100.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0330649%150 W · 156 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed New Mexico27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730139.2%118 W · 183 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Michigan State74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264770.2%33 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked New Mexico27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2713936.7%51 W · 88 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…8f26backed New Mexico27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-43.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2388…a491backed New Mexico20c99.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f1…bb92backed New Mexico27c99.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.03728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed New Mexico27c91.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.815543.6%24 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed Michigan State74c81.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.081637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed New Mexico28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42,25442.2%951 W · 1,303 L+3.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d0…00b5backed Michigan State76c78.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Michigan State75c78.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.635337.7%20 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Michigan State73c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.552454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed New Mexico33c64.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1524759.5%147 W · 100 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed New Mexico26c55.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.282429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2591…b527backed New Mexico21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.31435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.