CS2 · resolved market
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x868131aa7e00a17dffb13b4a445ca4c81ffeedb09640fea12dbfda2678f44fd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1b3…a386backed Yes | 70c | 2,212$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.43 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…c8cbbacked Yes | 79c | 1,520$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 3c | 1,233$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…98dbbacked No | 47c | 797.82$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 32c | 764.01$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.32 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 48c | 685.52$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.85 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked No | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb373…d97cbacked No | 25c | 359.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.96 | 587 | 45.5%267 W · 320 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…78c2backed Yes | 63c | 312$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823f…0bc3backed No | 40c | 307.52$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 33cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…beedbacked No | 26c | 305$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…b13abacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 54.3%108 W · 91 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dff…f0c8backed No | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 169.94$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…2ad4backed No | 17c | 156.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x941f…35c6backed No | 26c | 151.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd84d…cc32backed No | 25c | 125$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 60c | 108.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 307 | 48.9%150 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 66c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…bdc9backed No | 21c | 104.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked No | 31c | 102$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 277 | 49.5%137 W · 140 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 16c | 75.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 70.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa058…21cebacked No | 32c | 68.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1f38backed No | 56c | 62.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…96d5backed Yes | 74c | 62.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…b68abacked Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked No | 55c | 55.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ca…3549backed Yes | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…aa2abacked No | 34c | 50.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…80e5backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…5e63backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 368 | 46.7%172 W · 196 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…67dabacked No | 53c | 46.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…e315backed Yes | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3f…8ea3backed No | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…a82bbacked No | 29c | 38.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 31c | 33.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 33 | 81.8%27 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…fa7bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…9c51backed Yes | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…03d7backed Yes | 80c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.