TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Libertyof New York Liberty, Atlanta Dream
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$322,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$360,088

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,610 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd65…ee96backed Atlanta Dream60c45,614$27,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,5003745.9%17 W · 20 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed New York Liberty40c25,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,999.9413950.4%70 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Atlanta Dream8c20,454$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,626.1934826.4%92 W · 256 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Atlanta Dream45c14,030$6,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,267.981060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked New York Liberty58c11,859$6,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,995.6736950.9%188 W · 181 L+16.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Atlanta Dream59c11,796$6,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,959.623842.1%16 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed New York Liberty41c10,353$4,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,111.7727949.1%137 W · 142 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Atlanta Dream44c8,754$3,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,848.9979648.7%388 W · 408 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked New York Liberty58c8,567$4,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,603.8916152.2%84 W · 77 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked New York Liberty40c5,961$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,576.3410438.5%40 W · 64 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec6…d9edbacked Atlanta Dream12c5,500$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.829318.3%17 W · 76 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Atlanta Dream26c5,419$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.4210634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked New York Liberty40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Liberty51c4,730$2,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.981,78751.7%924 W · 863 L+54.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Dream35c4,573$1,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.761,63250.2%819 W · 813 L+37.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Atlanta Dream55c4,291$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3504450%22 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Liberty48c3,616$1,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.4719658.2%114 W · 82 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Liberty39c3,520$1,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,145.5941051.2%210 W · 200 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Atlanta Dream29c3,213$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.7719231.8%61 W · 131 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed New York Liberty74c2,781$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.4621447.7%102 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa60…2de1backed Atlanta Dream32c2,511$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d18…6f62backed New York Liberty45c2,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3751560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Atlanta Dream32c2,336$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.3416633.1%55 W · 111 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Atlanta Dream17c2,198$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.441741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Liberty40c2,102$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.5623245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked New York Liberty47c1,692$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891.6614346.2%66 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc65…96c8backed New York Liberty42c1,660$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.417236.1%26 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Atlanta Dream45c1,459$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.3837054.1%200 W · 170 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf224…bda7backed Atlanta Dream14c1,442$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-57.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Liberty40c1,354$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.6412850.8%65 W · 63 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Liberty39c1,327$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.747246.8%221 W · 251 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Atlanta Dream24c1,243$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.76437.5%24 W · 40 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Atlanta Dream60c1,229$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.893248.8%455 W · 477 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Atlanta Dream60c1,214$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.644967.3%33 W · 16 L+7.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+38.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Atlanta Dream6c1,206$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.292015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+90.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc48…c120backed Atlanta Dream32c1,200$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3784247.6%20 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e9…c2c1backed Atlanta Dream60c1,186$711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Liberty68c1,128$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36051147.2%241 W · 270 L-2.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Atlanta Dream45c1,120$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f9…45a7backed Atlanta Dream49c1,114$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5504365.1%28 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Atlanta Dream59c1,100$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6494047.5%19 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb575…d35bbacked New York Liberty50c1,056$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.26580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+97.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Atlanta Dream31c1,050$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.957431.1%23 W · 51 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Atlanta Dream39c1,000$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3855149%25 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d53…149cbacked New York Liberty51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.391952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Liberty74c948.21$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.7990449.4%447 W · 457 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed New York Liberty59c834.49$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.996051.7%31 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed New York Liberty74c803.78$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.76850%34 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked New York Liberty74c784$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.2313844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Liberty40c781.84$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.185948.4%416 W · 443 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41bb…6302backed Atlanta Dream61c757.38$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4621050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Atlanta Dream12c755.76$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4731443%135 W · 179 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed New York Liberty40c742$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.1111357.5%65 W · 48 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Atlanta Dream2c706.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.18960%0 W · 96 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x226b…bb68backed Atlanta Dream6c705.3$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.72395.1%2 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bf1…0089backed Atlanta Dream61c700$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-61.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Atlanta Dream45c685.77$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.7618746%86 W · 101 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf5…31f9backed Atlanta Dream55c649.71$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.551050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed New York Liberty41c641.35$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.5914942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ff…6b66backed Atlanta Dream9c621.66$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552425%6 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-41.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0c4…989abacked New York Liberty41c610$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.92060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Atlanta Dream4c600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21390%0 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Atlanta Dream5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309251.1%47 W · 45 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Atlanta Dream34c588.24$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked New York Liberty66c520$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.915351%78 W · 75 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked Atlanta Dream39c512.77$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2022630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0179…adcdbacked New York Liberty60c510.83$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.66683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x75c7…909dbacked New York Liberty56c505.55$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Atlanta Dream60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce37…a2d6backed Atlanta Dream33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0c…b626backed Atlanta Dream36c500$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d7…47a4backed Atlanta Dream49c498.08$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2449549.5%47 W · 48 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x432d…bda6backed New York Liberty52c495.58$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Liberty40c487$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.4132749.5%162 W · 165 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e76…f0f2backed Atlanta Dream3c456$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa01a…3aeebacked New York Liberty41c450.71$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.92955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5db…5800backed Atlanta Dream60c416.67$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2503455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Atlanta Dream58c410.33$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1923467.5%158 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Atlanta Dream38c399.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.053053.3%16 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Atlanta Dream53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31ac…2a39backed New York Liberty42c375.98$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.07450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked New York Liberty40c371.95$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.951931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed New York Liberty56c357$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.081662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Atlanta Dream38c348.93$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.261242.3%259 W · 353 L-31.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Liberty56c339.04$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.0230347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Atlanta Dream41c308.25$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.075431.5%17 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed New York Liberty60c305$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.0812245.1%55 W · 67 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fe…b350backed New York Liberty56c299.99$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.445942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Atlanta Dream45c296.08$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3411253.6%60 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7738…5dbdbacked New York Liberty49c291.25$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.832133.3%7 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Atlanta Dream37c271.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0521546.5%100 W · 115 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed Atlanta Dream37c270.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed New York Liberty74c268.24$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.957647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed New York Liberty66c255.68$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.932951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6ebacked Atlanta Dream57c245.71$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1407250%36 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Atlanta Dream34c225.22$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked New York Liberty45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.227946.8%37 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a24…90a1backed Atlanta Dream60c216.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303262.5%20 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2a…e8a9backed New York Liberty44c214.94$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.942138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Dream38c212$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.326147.1%123 W · 138 L+15.7wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.