TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

WNBA · resolved market

Chicago Sky vs. New York Liberty

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
New York Libertyof Chicago Sky, New York Liberty
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$786,562
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$823,231

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $786,562 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in WNBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bff…fc26backed New York Liberty75c281,537$210,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,573.538937.1%33 W · 56 L-8.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Chicago Sky25c150,000$37,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,5001250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed New York Liberty63c47,871$30,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,646.571060%6 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Chicago Sky51c45,116$22,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,945.866735.8%24 W · 43 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed New York Liberty55c36,958$20,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,663.86977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Sky37c24,617$9,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,206.791,76551.7%912 W · 853 L+53.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed Chicago Sky25c20,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Chicago Sky26c20,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.992055%11 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago Sky34c18,136$6,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,205.7299548.1%479 W · 516 L+2.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Chicago Sky27c16,541$4,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,406.1527449.6%136 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked New York Liberty79c16,179$12,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,456.0736750.7%186 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Chicago Sky25c12,222$3,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,055.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Chicago Sky42c11,378$4,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,766.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-66%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed New York Liberty72c10,730$7,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,004.481586.7%13 W · 2 L+4.9wins+0.33per pick54cpaid+64.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Chicago Sky25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Chicago Sky25c10,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5004766%31 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Chicago Sky25c9,000$2,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Chicago Sky28c9,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52010338.8%40 W · 63 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Sky46c8,955$4,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,095.6850646.8%237 W · 269 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…a1a6backed New York Liberty65c8,847$5,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,109.771573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked New York Liberty21c8,159$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,457.8210340.8%42 W · 61 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Sky26c7,624$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,967.2923245.7%106 W · 126 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Chicago Sky42c7,426$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,127.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Chicago Sky34c5,917$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.81618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-70.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed New York Liberty16c5,640$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,709.783933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Chicago Sky77c5,637$4,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,368.067740.3%31 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Sky47c4,655$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,184.871,61150.2%809 W · 802 L+37.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…38c8backed New York Liberty30c4,650$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.863357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x98e1…3241backed New York Liberty41c4,347$1,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,568.062360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9709…52abbacked Chicago Sky33c4,215$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.56520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-73.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2b0…5e5ebacked Chicago Sky1c4,100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked New York Liberty25c4,064$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,057.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Chicago Sky43c4,033$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.3217656.8%100 W · 76 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3099…3896backed Chicago Sky71c3,871$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,741450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked New York Liberty74c3,818$2,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.685657.1%32 W · 24 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c90…5b3ebacked Chicago Sky30c3,618$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Liberty75c3,579$2,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.7750952.5%267 W · 242 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Chicago Sky40c3,090$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.874942.3%317 W · 432 L-21.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed New York Liberty53c2,809$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.8732540.3%131 W · 194 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b0f…4633backed New York Liberty76c2,632$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.58966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Chicago Sky23c2,232$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.4629654.4%161 W · 135 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed New York Liberty62c2,218$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.037259.7%43 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Liberty74c2,213$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.9383748.1%403 W · 434 L+2.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Chicago Sky25c2,203$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.0815048%72 W · 78 L-0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2906…555abacked New York Liberty25c2,009$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,502.094961.2%30 W · 19 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+19.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x32e3…3a5cbacked New York Liberty72c1,953$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.226746.3%31 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed New York Liberty60c1,931$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.2955255.1%304 W · 248 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed New York Liberty52c1,754$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.1819428.9%56 W · 138 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked New York Liberty50c1,660$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.1819031.1%59 W · 131 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-43.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3171…b991backed Chicago Sky63c1,600$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Chicago Sky29c1,514$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.781330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-30.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x270c…f66fbacked Chicago Sky2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Sky24c1,431$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.8624347.7%116 W · 127 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Chicago Sky25c1,411$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.7419446.4%90 W · 104 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd3e…af18backed Chicago Sky28c1,391$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.9640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Chicago Sky25c1,326$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.6241145.7%188 W · 223 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2802…347dbacked Chicago Sky35c1,313$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.11020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-65.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked New York Liberty63c1,280$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.532642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked New York Liberty54c1,251$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.3913844.9%62 W · 76 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Sky25c1,175$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3440550.9%206 W · 199 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Chicago Sky44c1,107$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.5830347.2%143 W · 160 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Chicago Sky32c1,098$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.4514942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked New York Liberty48c1,041$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.1610634.9%37 W · 69 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8f…c1f0backed New York Liberty76c1,012$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Liberty77c1,010$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.3932049.4%158 W · 162 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed New York Liberty29c1,004$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.84850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed New York Liberty31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6903748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+50.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…345cbacked New York Liberty73c984.22$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.22475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Sky34c905.36$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7189349.4%441 W · 452 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23b5…97e1backed Chicago Sky35c896.86$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.362437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Chicago Sky18c854.85$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8715741.4%65 W · 92 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e6…5501backed Chicago Sky24c818.26$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.78825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc806…57c6backed Chicago Sky42c800$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3382326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked New York Liberty52c772.6$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.62268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed New York Liberty44c703.02$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.8510538.1%40 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Chicago Sky25c692.03$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.3812345.5%56 W · 67 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed New York Liberty73c689.65$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.216854.4%37 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked New York Liberty59c631.35$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.4985158.4%497 W · 354 L+70.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5d23…9517backed New York Liberty65c602.02$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Chicago Sky25c579.3$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.266237.1%23 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago Sky27c573.66$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5892248.8%450 W · 472 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0373…4057backed Chicago Sky28c555$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.48733.3%29 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed New York Liberty76c528.6$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.6540%2 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick71cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf731…e5c2backed Chicago Sky34c511.6$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.992646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a35…a72fbacked Chicago Sky27c508.31$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.78425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde6…764bbacked New York Liberty66c505$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.465457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Chicago Sky27c502.3$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8134448%165 W · 179 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed New York Liberty73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1356845.6%31 W · 37 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked New York Liberty44c483.53$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.434753.9%187 W · 160 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed New York Liberty41c482.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2510…7a97backed Chicago Sky26c480.77$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf9…ad6ebacked Chicago Sky44c467.66$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.74825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc44e…284abacked Chicago Sky20c453.6$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Chicago Sky37c448.67$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.3530649%150 W · 156 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x293b…7a58backed Chicago Sky26c442.85$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6374…6408backed Chicago Sky31c440$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.42138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee2…de75backed New York Liberty68c437$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Chicago Sky36c435.26$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8336454.1%197 W · 167 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94c1…8036backed Chicago Sky46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001926.3%5 W · 14 L-5.7wins-0.30per pick56cpaid-59.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed New York Liberty48c432.59$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.9819458.2%113 W · 81 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.