F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed198eb81e2a466c14de0e54e01205e3a67d9498a112bf463c2656aa4ada101
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 32c | 15,473$4,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,941.87 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 68c | 15,470$10,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,950.52 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 29c | 980.21$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.75 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…a102backed Yes | 32c | 970$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 64c | 870$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.2 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 69c | 721.26$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.59 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 31c | 681.19$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.07 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828a…7e18backed Yes | 28c | 669.01$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…86d8backed No | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 37c | 590.19$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…6012backed Yes | 37c | 540.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…713abacked Yes | 73c | 518.13$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…7961backed Yes | 29c | 515.25$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.42 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 31c | 501.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 34c | 429.85$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc0…6c38backed No | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 65c | 377.13$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 28c | 377$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 29c | 355.28$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.02 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 30c | 341.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…8adabacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd578…446bbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 65c | 291.87$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 289.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 40c | 280$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 92 | 19.6%18 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 31c | 240.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…a0dbbacked Yes | 42c | 236.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 29c | 221.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 36c | 208.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…d6b2backed Yes | 32c | 184.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 61c | 164.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 32c | 157.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…8be1backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bd…55c9backed No | 75c | 137.16$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 39c | 130.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 31c | 129.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 127.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 116.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…3b95backed Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed Yes | 29c | 111.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…0149backed Yes | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…dc41backed Yes | 30c | 86.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d75…41dcbacked No | 71c | 79.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 62c | 76.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 112 | 66.1%74 W · 38 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa378…1927backed Yes | 33c | 74.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…d526backed Yes | 38c | 66.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e8…1403backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…508abacked Yes | 38c | 60.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…a1dbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked No | 69c | 55.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Yes | 35c | 51.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…abf4backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…2c25backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab9…5f7abacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 67c | 22.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…f035backed No | 68c | 20.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…fbd0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.