TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,055
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,055 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed No3c1,582$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.452,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3016…54e9backed Yes62c818.97$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.9513614.7%20 W · 116 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No7c206.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.295832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No13c196.56$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.516,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No56c192$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.525,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No59c181.34$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.082,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes40c177.5$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.518035.6%64 W · 116 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes41c161.22$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.888245.1%37 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes40c160.2$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.191,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes63c160$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.353594.3%33 W · 2 L+13.8wins+0.40per pick55cpaid+79.9%equal weight76+0.23 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No36c151$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8746824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked Yes75c144.12$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.535993.2%55 W · 4 L+21.7wins+0.37per pick56cpaid+80.4%equal weight79+0.26 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes45c143.46$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.4549854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No8c137.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.522,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes48c121.16$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.269,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No28c118.79$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No57c115.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1228737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c114.16$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.488,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c109.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.452,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No57c109.18$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.181,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c109$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes41c108.23$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.561929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes44c105$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.891444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No21c102$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5322746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9156048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No53c99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4263757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c96.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c95.65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No64c91.79$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.859,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No32c88.48$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.474,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No33c80.86$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.91,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No25c78.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.718,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb348…dffdbacked No57c71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.47250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No40c69.86$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.265353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes42c64.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.865,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc0…cc78backed No51c64.04$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.662245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.987,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes42c61$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.147,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.82,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed Yes50c55$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.58947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes45c54.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.872,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No60c53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.863143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19e0…d1aebacked Yes46c51.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No50c51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.581756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No51c50.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec0a…71dabacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2511343.4%49 W · 64 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No42c48.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.492,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c47.92$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes48c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.471649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No59c42.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.041,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1b…da1ebacked No67c40.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3625946.3%120 W · 139 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes51c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.523362.2%145 W · 88 L+33.5wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+31.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes35c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2621339%83 W · 130 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No46c39.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.241,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes42c39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.622,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes40c36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.619531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No58c35.86$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.828950.6%45 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x279c…c061backed No57c35.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes37c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes40c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes45c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.592,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bf5…606bbacked No59c31.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.812147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No65c30.76$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes41c30.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.912,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2108…2e40backed Yes50c29$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.615939%23 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes42c28.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5776936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9210…5430backed No57c28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-71.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes43c28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9643842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes36c27.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.745236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No56c26.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No59c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.355,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes46c26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9366758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No59c25.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9944448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes46c25.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.693,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80db…4a73backed Yes42c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54951%25 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No49c22.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9180957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No55c19.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.591,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No60c16.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb0f…b951backed Yes78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.34983.7%41 W · 8 L+13.2wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+59.7%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.